
“Serious attention is now being paid to the possibility that man’s activities may be affecting, or about to affect, the Earth’s climate.”
So began a piece in the 6 December 1979 issue of èƵ. Yes, we have been sounding the alarm about climate change for decades. Prophets that we were, we went on to introduce the “so-called ‘carbon dioxide greenhouse effect'”. Carbon dioxide threatens long-term “global warming”, we wrote – though we can’t claim credit for that phrase. It was popularised by the late climate scientist in 1975.
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Forty years ago, the debate wasn’t so much over whether human activities were affecting the climate, but instead whether burning fossil fuels or destroying rainforests was worse for “climatic change” (the snappier “climate change” wasn’t yet in vogue).
In this case, our fears stemmed from a plan by the Soviet Union to divert major Siberian rivers away from their discharge points in the Arctic Ocean in order to supply agricultural lands. Our concern, shared by scientists from the now legendary at the University of East Anglia, founded in 1972, was that the change in salinity and freshwater flow into the Arctic Ocean could melt the Arctic ice. “One day,” we warned, “the ice will disappear and the Earth will have many millions of years of a warmer climatic regime.”
The reality differed in a couple of ways. First, the Soviets didn’t divert the rivers – though Russia did revisit the plan years later, after the Union had broken up. Second, the melting of the Arctic wouldn’t be caused by changes in salinity, but by warming temperatures. What we did get right, however, was the dramatic impact an ice-free Arctic could have on the climate of the northern hemisphere. So much so that earlier this year, I found myself writing about ideas to refreeze the Arctic and restore the dwindling ice cover.
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