Electricity demand in the UK is falling 鈥� but surprisingly, that means the聽country is not doing what it must to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
An analysis of government and industry聽data by Simon Evans of climate website Carbon Brief has revealed that . The fall in electricity demand is slightly smaller, as UK now imports a bit more electricity.
This is part of a global trend: electricity consumption in many comparable countries including the US is stable or even falling. But the fall in the UK is particularly large. 鈥淭he UK does seem to be unusual,鈥� says Evans.
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Oddly, no one is entirely sure why electricity use has stopped rising in rich countries. The decline in heavy industries has certainly contributed but in the UK this mostly played out in the 1980s and 1990s. Instead, it appears better energy efficiency is the main factor.
Efficiency gains
This is fantastic news. It suggests all those efforts over the years to make appliances such as fridges more efficient really are making a difference. (And these improvements are why, contrary to what many people think, replacing old appliances is often greener than repairing them.) If you鈥檙e one of the people who swapped incandescent light bulbs for fluorescents or LEDs before you were forced to, give yourself a pat on the back.
It also means economists who claim economic growth depends on rising electricity consumption are wrong. Evans鈥檚 analysis shows the UK鈥檚 real GDP has been risen over the past decade or so even as electricity use has fallen.
And there鈥檚 more good news. In 2018, more than 40 per cent of the UK鈥檚 electricity came from nuclear, wind, solar or hydro. (Evans adds in the 10 per cent from biomass to calculate that half of the UK鈥檚 electricity comes from low-carbon sources, but聽.)
The big 鈥榖ut鈥�
This combination of falling consumption and rising renewables has led to a big fall in CO2 emissions from electricity generation. But here鈥檚 the big 鈥渂ut鈥�: generating electricity isn鈥檛 the biggest source of CO2 emissions and it鈥檚 also by far the easiest sector in which to make cuts. Transport, heating and farming produce .
Reducing emissions from farming and flying is going to be extremely difficult. But we can green heating, and road and rail transport, by electrifying it wherever possible. In other words, electricity consumption should be going up as we swap petrol cars for electric ones and gas boilers for heat pumps.
The organisation that advises the UK on meeting its climate goals, the Committee on Climate Change, expects electricity consumption to rise by 10 to 20 per cent by 2030 as this happens. But the transition hasn鈥檛 really begun yet because the current government is doing next to nothing.
The UK was once regarded as a global leader in efforts to limit further climate change 鈥� last year in an assessment of European Union countries鈥� ambition and progress. So sadly, the UK鈥檚 falling electricity consumption is not really something to celebrate.
