STOP smoking? Lose weight? Play less Fortnite? It is the time of year to forgo instant gratification for long-term gain. For world leaders, getting serious about climate change offers the ultimate New Year鈥檚 resolution.
Last year was the fourth hottest on record. An unprecedented heatwave in the northern hemisphere brought devastating wildfires and floods. And with an El Ni帽o 鈥� the ocean phenomenon that raises global temperatures 鈥� spinning up in the Pacific, 2019 could be even hotter.
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Despite the hype, the Paris Agreement on climate change has barely more legal status than your personal pledges for 2019, and lacklustre national commitments to the agreement risk committing the world to catastrophe.
It is now increasingly clear that, to curb the risk of disastrous climate change, certain things must happen at set times: fossil fuel emissions must peak in 2020 and halve by 2030, then halve again by 2040 and so on each decade. My colleagues and I at the Stockholm Resilience Centre call this exponential decline the Carbon Law. Framing the problem this way can provide short-term focus to a long-term goal, something the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change backs.
The next two years setting us on the is path are critical for the planet. Every decision made now on energy, transport, buildings and industry will affect whether we can stick to the Carbon Law.
Can emissions peak by 2020? Yes. Between 2014 and 2016 there was almost no emissions growth, while economies still grew. In around 50 countries emissions have already peaked. Is it realistic to halve emissions by 2030? Yes. In fact, many firms and cities can go far faster. Renewable energy is now 12 per cent of electricity production and wind and solar are doubling every three years. In 2018, the cost of green energy reached parity with fossil fuels in many regions, and is still falling. Over 50 per cent of the world鈥檚 electricity will come from renewables by 2030, if we can stay the course. But only if the world halts investment in fossil fuels.
Momentum is there. Shipping giant Maersk has committed to being carbon neutral by 2050. In Norway, electric and hybrid cars went from 5 per cent of new sales to 50 per cent in five years. Volkswagen has resolved to go all-electric by 2040.
To lock in a clean-energy revolution in 2019, governments must create the right economic playing field by ending fossil fuel subsidies, pricing carbon fairly, setting adequate emissions standards and encouraging investment in renewables. Our Exponential Climate Action Roadmap shows how. Ant脫nio Guterres, secretary-general of the UN, will host a climate summit in September. Let us hope world leaders can tell him their climate resolutions have been kept.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淨uit carbon, and quick鈥�
