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The UK鈥檚 decision to leave the European Union has caused a fair few headaches, not least for prime minister Theresa May, but did the referendum make the country more depressed? The number of people taking antidepressants rose after the UK鈥檚 vote for Brexit in 2016, according to numerous headlines today.

Supposedly, economic uncertainty around Britain鈥檚 departure from the European Union sent people to their doctors to cope with the stress. This appealing narrative was covered by newspapers in the UK and elsewhere from India to the US; the world is fascinated by Britain鈥檚 unexpected political turmoil. Which makes it all the more disturbing that the neat story is most likely wrong.

It stems from a study that looked at prescribing data for England in July 鈥� the month after the Brexit vote 鈥� for six years until 2016. But the figures are not clear-cut. Antidepressant prescribing has been steadily rising in most western countries for many years now, and the UK is no exception. Sure enough, in July 2016 antidepressant doses were slightly up on July the previous year.

Rise and fall

But in the five years before then, use of these medicines had also been rising 鈥� and in fact at a higher rate. So if anything, the number of people seeking antidepressants the month after the referendum was actually lower than expected, given the historic trends.

So how did study authors Sotiris Vandoros of King鈥檚 College London and colleagues reach the opposite conclusion? They compared these figures with prescribing rates for two other commonly used medicines, a treatment for gout, and iron tablets for anaemia.

Use of these medicines had also been increasing over the previous five years, but in July 2016, there was a downturn. This fall was greater than the slowing in the rate of increase in antidepressant prescribing. So the authors concluded that antidepressants did not fall as much as they 鈥渟hould have鈥�, thanks to Brexit.

For a start, this means that headlines about Brexit triggering a rise in antidepressant use 鈥� a 鈥渟pike鈥� according to the 鈥� are plain wrong. They can鈥檛 solely be blamed on journalists overhyping scientific findings, though. The title of the scientific journal鈥檚 own press release stated the referendum is 鈥渓inked to rise in antidepressant prescribing鈥�. Vandoros says he had no control over the title.

Press release aside, the whole premise of deducing a cause of antidepressant use from prescribing trends in two other drugs is questionable. It seems unlikely that the collection of factors that affect use of anaemia and gout medicines are the same as those influencing antidepressant use.

The conclusion also seems to contradict recent figures from the UK鈥檚 Office for National Statistics that show a rise in national happiness in England in the months following Brexit, as the authors acknowledge in their paper.

Perhaps Brexit did indeed cause more people to visit their doctor the next month with stress. Perhaps something different was responsible. Or perhaps it鈥檚 all just statistical noise with no real effect there that needs an explanation. But this paper, and the resulting headlines, are just bad science. Now that is depressing.