Terrified of tsunamis? Maybe cancel those holidays in Hawaii, Bali or Phuket. They鈥檙e all among the top 10 major tourist beaches deemed most at risk of the big waves.
鈥淗awaii is number one because of all the tsunamis that can come from the frequent 鈥榬ing-of-fire鈥� earthquakes zones, from Japan, Alaska, South America and other regions,鈥� said of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany, who has developed the first ever聽ranking聽of beach tsunami risk. 鈥淧huket was also among the most prominent at-risk destinations, as was Bali, and parts of Turkey.鈥�
Schaefer compiled his聽ranking using historic data on 10,000 of the largest recorded tsunamis coupled with earthquake and seismic activity in 54 subduction zones. He used these figures to聽batter the 24,000 most popular tourist beaches with virtual tsunamis, then cross referenced with revenue data from governments and tourism operators to work out the potential economic losses at each beach should they encounter real tsunamis.
Advertisement
The聽rankings reflect likely economic rather than human losses. Typically, tsunamis can ruin beaches and their associated infrastructure, sometimes permanently, by covering them in mud, or washing away sand. And sometimes serious tsunamis can destroy economies by scaring away tourists. Following the Indonesian tsunami in 2004 which killed 228,000聽people, 20 per cent of beach resorts closed in the Maldives, while in Phang Nga and Phuket in Thailand, two thirds and a quarter of hotels respectively closed within six months of the disaster.
Costly waves
Chart-topping Hawaii earns its place through the likely loss of costly infrastructure and erosion from frequent tsunamis. The last major tsunami there in 1960 originated from Chile, claiming 60 lives and causing $500 million in today鈥檚 terms. Schaefer calculates that for Hawaii and the other top three, losses from tsunamis could average $10 million a year.
Schaefer stressed that for tourists themselves, the risks are small. For a tourist spending a single day at a resort along the coast of Mexico, for example, the likelihood of a tsunami is 1 in 60,000. In Crete, by contrast, the comparable risk would be higher, at 1 in 6000.
He hopes the聽ranking聽(listed in full below) will alert resorts and tourists alike to possible risks, and that it encourages resorts to take more precautionary measures, such as telling tourists how to escape if a tsunami is imminent. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one of the few natural disasters where you can save yourself if you do the right thing,鈥� he says. 鈥淪o it would be great if tsunami risk became common knowledge.鈥� Schaefer presented the work today at the 聽in聽Vienna, Austria.
1. Hawaii, USA
2. Lima, Peru
3. Valparaiso, Chile
4. Guerrero, Mexico
5. Bali, Indonesia
6. Greater Los Angeles, USA
7. Phuket, Thailand
8. Southwest Turkey
9. Bio-Bio, Chile
10. Punterenas, Costa Rica
