
THE world added more solar capacity in 2017 than all new coal, gas and nuclear electricity-generating plants combined. That is the conclusion of a report on how much banks, private investors and utility companies invested in renewables last year.
Sounds promising. But on closer examination there are some worrying numbers in the report. They reveal that in most of the world, investment over the past few years has either changed little or fallen, often because of cutbacks in subsidies – showing that despite getting ever cheaper, wind and solar power remain heavily dependent on government support.
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In fact, private investment in the developed countries whose emissions caused most of the global warming so far has halved since 2011, to $103 billion. The most shocking change is in Europe, which has set itself the goal of leading the world in tackling climate change. There, investment peaked at $126bn in 2011 and has now fallen to $41bn.
The global figures would look quite grim were it not for the astounding efforts of China, where investment in renewables has soared over the last decade to hit a record $127bn last year. This means that in China alone, investors are pouring more money into solar and wind power than in all the developed countries combined.
It is important to point out that because the cost of building wind farms and solar plants has fallen, every buck spent today creates far more electricity-generating bang than a decade ago. But if investment in developed countries had remained at 2011 levels, the world would be getting a lot more of its electricity from renewable sources than it is now.
“In China, more money is put into solar and wind power than in all the developed countries combined”
And that matters. Despite the $3 trillion spent globally since 2004, just 12 per cent of the world’s electricity came from renewable sources in 2017, compared with 5 per cent in 2005, excluding large hydroelectric schemes and nuclear plants. This is projected to rise to 34 per cent by 2040, says the lead author of the report, Angus McCrone of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
So why is investment in renewables plummeting in places such as Europe and Japan? Many factors are involved, say McCrone and his colleagues, but cuts in subsidies have played a big part. Take the UK, which has seen the biggest falls in investment, down 65 per cent last year, after slashing green policies back in 2015.
Another issue is profitability. If there is a surplus of electricity whenever the sun shines or the wind blows, the price it can be sold for falls. So the idea that market forces alone will ensure solar and wind keep growing until they replace all coal and gas plants is wrong.
But it’s not all bad news. Despite Donald Trump withholding funding to developing countries promised as part of the Paris agreement, they are now outspending developed countries – largely thanks to China. Even in the US, renewables investment fell just 6 per cent to $41bn. What’s more, R&D in renewable energy rose to a record $10bn, thanks to firms boosting their spending by 12 per cent to match that of governments.
Overall, there are some reasons to be cheerful: the figures show the world is moving away from fossil fuels. The bad news is that this isn’t happening as fast as it needs to if we want to limit warming to not too much more than 2°C. Governments need to step up and boost investment if there is to be any chance of success.
This article appeared in print under the headline “We should look to China for renewable success”
Article amended on 12 April 2018
We corrected the kind of spending that fell in the developed countries, and what funding Trump withheld