One climate-related headline you will read in 2018 is a dead cert: carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach levels unprecedented in at least 800,000 years. That鈥檚 an easy prediction, given emissions are non-zero and this gas stays aloft for centuries.
What is more concerning is the rate of growth of carbon dioxide. It appears to despite the recent dramatic slowing in annual emissions from human activity. The strong El Ni帽o of 2015 and 2016 explains some of this acceleration. That鈥檚 because this vast warming of waters in the tropical Pacific leads to and natural carbon release. But in 2018, with El Ni帽o gone, scientists will be watching for signs that land and ocean stores of carbon are adding to this.
On the flipside, we are unlikely to see a repeat of global temperature records of recent years in 2018. That鈥檚 thanks to a weak La Ni帽a, El Ni帽o鈥檚 opposite number, which tends to have a cooling effect.
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More good news is that 2018 is likely to be the year electric cars become cheaper than their diesel and petrol counterparts. China is expected to announce an end to diesel and petrol engines on its roads 鈥� ultimately saving millions of lives as urban pollution falls and sending shockwaves through the car industry. More countries will follow. The question remains whether Tesla can ramp up production of its moderately priced family car 鈥� the Model 3 鈥� fast enough to meet expected increase in demand. Some of the other big carmakers with the muscle to scale up production will be circling for a takeover.
In March, the intergovernmental panel on biodiversity will publish on the state of biodiversity across the continents. And the first report from the research initiative is expected to land during the year. This major computer modelling project is bringing together leading economic and Earth system modellers to explore ways to meet the sustainable development goals without breaching planetary boundaries, such as ozone depletion, beyond which risks to humanity become much greater.
$5-million prize
I expect to see renewed interest next year in redefining the global commons 鈥� key biomes and Earth cycles 鈥� with the launch of a commission to propose science-based targets for these. In May, following in the footsteps of Alfred Nobel, a Sweden-based philanthropist will award in prizes for the best governance ideas to tackle global challenges, protect global commons and ensure a safe and stable future.
Come October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will publish its eagerly awaited report on the impacts and pathways for avoiding more than 1.5掳C of warming. Spoiler alert: Earth has already reached 1.1掳C above pre-industrial temperatures. Lags in both Earth and economic-industrial systems mean 1.5掳C is almost unavoidable without heroic attempts to ramp up 鈥渘egative emissions technologies鈥�. But these technologies, such as biofuel combined with carbon capture, seem unlikely to be feasible at the scale envisioned to stabilise global temperatures at 鈥渨ell below 2掳C鈥� 鈥� the target set by the UN Paris Agreement on climate.
So, 2018 will be the year the world wakes up to the reality of dealing with climate change. Emissions scenarios produced by climate and economic models will come under increased scrutiny. New emissions scenarios must demand much deeper, disruptive near-term emissions cuts 鈥� closer to halving emissions every decade.
As the year ends, nations will meet in Poland to work out how to increase climate change ambitions. In advance of this, California governor Jerry Brown will hold a climate summit to do the same among cities and companies. Expect a major announcement from the Silicon Valley giants to step up the drive for a disruptive low-carbon future 鈥� not just in the IT sector, but across the global economy.
Finally, I couldn鈥檛 preview 2018 without a mention of US president Donald Trump. The price of wind and solar power is crashing. Nineteen countries recently pledged to phase out coal rapidly 鈥� more will follow in the next 12 months. More than half of Europe鈥檚 619 coal-fired power plants are losing money. Remarkably, closing them and replacing them with renewable power is cheaper. Trump鈥檚 dream of bringing back coal will probably be dead and buried by the end of the year.
