OUR planet feels like it is getting smaller. But just what is sustainable development for a growing population when each person occupies less space but uses more resources? To answer, argues Massimo Livi Bacci, we must grapple with demography.
Global population growth is slowing, with numbers predicted to peak at 11 billion by around the 2100s. But global demographic patterns have never been so varied. Life expectancy at birth ranges from not much over 50 years to well over 80, and the fertility rate ranges from more than six children per woman in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa to under two in most parts of Europe and other wealthy countries. 鈥淭he world鈥� won鈥檛 have to accommodate 3.5 billion more people by 2200, Africa will.
Technological advances should let wealthy populations reduce the resources used per capita. But where living standards need to rise, resources are likely to be consumed at an increasing rate.
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With the right development, the population increases in poorer countries will allow them to become more powerful economically, pushing Europe, North America and China into relative decline. The geopolitical repercussions will be profound.
鈥淔aced with competing needs, societies may even make choices that reverse increases in longevity鈥�
Others have pointed out the dangers of population growth, and what happens when living standards erode resources and, eventually, hit physical limits. It is less common, at least in a book aimed at the popular market, to point out the dangers of fertility levels so low that couples don鈥檛 replace themselves.
Without immigration, such societies not only shrink, but fewer workers must support growing numbers of older people. Health spending on the elderly is inherently unproductive, and Livi Bacci raises provocative questions about a sustainable healthcare system when faced with so many competing needs. Societies may even end up making choices that reverse increases in longevity.
Migration is a demographically significant act, and a vehicle for reducing global inequality. Livi Bacci calls the choice to migrate a 鈥減ersonal prerogative鈥� and an important strategy for individual and societal adaptation, along with the choice to reproduce (or not) and live life as one chooses.
In an echo of Amartya Sen鈥檚 Development as Freedom, Livi Bacci portrays transitions from high birth and death rates to low ones as an unshackling from the constraints of biology, instincts and the environment. But oddly, while he defends migration as a human right, he downplays it as a solution for ageing societies.
Elsewhere, far from side-stepping problematic issues, Livi Bacci blindly ploughs through them. For instance, he ignores the potential racism of juxtaposing the goal of bolstering European fertility and reducing it in sub-Saharan Africa.
Given the all-but disappearance of population from the UN鈥檚 Sustainable Development Goals, Livi Bacci raises many challenging questions. His book is a welcome reminder of how geographical differences in demography have a profound affect on people鈥檚 lives. Whether we find this worrying is, of course, up to us.
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This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淰ery different lives鈥�
