In the aftermath of hurricane Harvey, concluded: 鈥淭he best lesson the world can take from Texas is to follow the path of its extraordinary economic growth on the way to environmental resilience.鈥�
Perhaps he missed the pictures, but the fourth largest city in the US is under water. The 75-trillion litre deluge damaged 185,000 homes, destroyed 9000 and forced 42,000 people into shelters. proves right, Harvey will become .
鈥� that economic growth offsets environmental catastrophe 鈥� is wrong. Unfettered economic growth guaranteed Houston鈥檚 vulnerability to natural disaster.
Advertisement
The city鈥檚 economic growth was fuelled by a bonfire of development regulations. Starting in the 1990s, an led to rapacious economic growth. Buildings went up on flood plains and green areas were paved over. People were given in flood-prone areas.
But this wealth was not spread evenly. About . The poorest will be hit hardest. Low-income families often live on cheaper land in flood-prone areas.
And no matter how much money you have, you can鈥檛 afford scientific ignorance. Texan Republican Congressman John Culberson said: 鈥淣o one could have ever predicted or expected a catastrophe of this magnitude to descend on the Houston area.鈥� Well, except the experts, who .
Valuing nature
To be fair, Stephens pointed out that Harvey had claimed 44 lives compared with over 1200 in the Asian flooding. But his view on resilience, which is widely held, needs updating in an Anthropocene world, one defined by the human impact on the planet and rapid change.
We need to abandon the notion that it is purely about investment in infrastructure to protect against natural 聽disasters 鈥� building higher levees and dams, houses and offices. Many other factors aid a bounce back: a strong economy for sure, but a diverse economy is also important. As is less income inequality, to help improve trust in government and social cohesion.
We need to think about resilience in complex systems that are a mix of environmental, economic and social factors. This means at times deliberately sidelining economic efficiency for what engineers call redundancy 鈥� replicating critical parts of a system so a single failure does not lead to disaster. A city built for efficiency may work well when times are good, but grind to a halt when faced with a shock.
This approach includes valuing nature. Swamps are often perceived as having low economic value until drained for development. Viewed in isolation, this may be true. Viewed as part of a larger, long-term strategy, they can be priceless, .
Moreover, we need to think about emergent behaviour 鈥� how apparently tiny changes can accumulate to become a major problem. One concrete patio makes little difference to overall rainfall run-off. .
Change 鈥� the new normal
This comes at a time when Trump has binned regulations that required flood protections to take account of climate change risks. Resilience in the Anthropocene means re-evaluating risk as the baseline shifts rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change鈥檚 most recent report concludes that globally wet areas will tend to get wetter and dry areas drier.
This level of vagueness is difficult to plan for, but at the very least we can assume and what were 1000-year events, like Harvey鈥檚 extreme rainfall, look set to become more common. Precisely how common is difficult to judge. But if this were Russian roulette, climate change is adding bullets to the chamber. So, our notion of resilience must also include transformation.
Stephens is a brilliant writer and rhetorician. He expertly marshals to destroy his enemies鈥� arguments. These weapons are dangerous. His contrary position on climate science .
But his call for India and Bangladesh to follow the US economic model of urban sprawl coupled with gross societal inequality will not build resilient societies across Asia. It will condemn these countries to the same mistakes made in Houston.
Read more: The cities in the firing line for the next hurricane Harvey
