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North Sea cod is back on the menu. Those were in the UK this week as the Marine Stewardship Council, an international body that certifies whether fish sold to consumers was caught sustainably, gave its approval to a fish once feared to be headed for extinction.

So is cod now guilt-free? Can the UK go back to enjoying its national comfort food 鈥� cod and chips 鈥� with a clear conscience?

First, about the guilt: it was never wrong to eat cod as such. Brits ate sustainably managed cod from Norwegian and Icelandic fisheries even as .

鈥淭he vast majority 鈥� around 95% 鈥� of cod consumed in the UK is caught in the Barents Sea and off Iceland, where stringent measures have ensured good management of cod stocks,鈥� says Andy Gray of , which oversees UK fisheries.

This week鈥檚 verdict means all cod bought by UK consumers should now be sustainable. What hasn鈥檛 been trumpeted is that the victory is fragile: it was produced by a management system the UK is planning to leave, the European Union鈥檚 Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).

Nautical tales

Fishing communities voted solidly for Brexit. 鈥淭here is a widespread belief that the stricter regulations and smaller catches of recent years are because foreign boats have taken all the fish, and that will end if we leave the EU. That isn鈥檛 true,鈥� says at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, UK, a fisheries scientist who worked on the verdict.

This erroneous belief partly arose because the EU set up the CFP in 1983, around the time overfishing that began in the 1950s was starting to bite. Catches fell and quotas tightened 鈥� but the European policy didn鈥檛 cause that problem, says Cook.

Fish like cod swim freely between national waters, so countries that share a stock must divide up catch quotas to prevent overfishing. Such shared North Sea cod quotas existed before the CFP, but overfishing was rampant as no one was punished for exceeding them.

That changed when the CFP was introduced, but EU fisheries ministers still initially set quotas based more on politics than science.

Then, from 2002, the CFP set , which meant quotas had to stay closer to scientific recommendations. It also stopped EU fishing fleets growing. 鈥淭he CFP is why the North Sea cod recovered,鈥� says Cook. contradict scientific facts, he says.

If Britain leaves the CFP, the fishing industry could again demand bigger catches than scientists advise. Politicians may have trouble refusing.

Canadian comparison

That is already happening off Newfoundland in Canada. Cod fishing was banned there in 1993 after stocks crashed. In 2015, certain fisheries started to recover.

A small, cautious catch permitted that year was doubled in 2016 and the almost double again this year. Sherrylynn Rowe and George Rose of Memorial University in Newfoundland that more fishing now 鈥� especially as recent findings suggest the recovery has stalled 鈥� could compromise both fish and fishery.

鈥淭he science is unequivocal: keep removals low,鈥� says Rowe. Yet in May, Canada granted the industry its raised catch.

Unlike Newfoundland, the UK has neighbours that may discourage excesses. 鈥淚f Britain starts managing shared stocks like cod in ways that don鈥檛 meet CFP standards, the EU can impose sanctions,鈥� says Cook, like cutting imports of British mackerel or scampi, which are much more valuable than cod. The political wrangling, however, is unlikely to be good for the fish.

And cod face other threats. They like cold water, so climate change is forcing them north. Cod have only recovered in the northern part of the North Sea, not the south, and no one knows how they will fare in future. 鈥淕iven the many uncertainties, a go-slow approach is advised,鈥� says Rowe.

Newfoundland has already discovered this. In 2014, the MSC awarded its approval to a small cod fishery south-east of the province. Last May, as cod deaths soared for unknown reasons, it .

This week鈥檚 MSC certification for North Sea cod may also not be permanent. It is a monument to the resilience of nature, and the ability of scientists, politicians and industries to 鈥� sometimes 鈥� achieve great things. But cod isn鈥檛 out of the water yet.