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The US celebrates Independence Day with a national anthem that describes the “rockets’ red glare” of a 19th-century battle. This year supplied the real thing: the test launch of what it described as a Fourth of July “gift” to the US: an (ICBM) able to “strike the US mainland… with large heavy nuclear warheads”.
A missile from North Korea with the range of this week’s test, notes Joe Cirincione of nuclear think tank the Ploughshares Fund, could hit Singapore, Australia and Alaska, and based on their rate of progress, he fears they will be able to hit Los Angeles, New York or Washington DC in a few years.
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But hit with what? A missile packing conventional explosives can do limited damage – the real threat comes from a nuclear payload. North Korea has the bomb, but no one knows if there’s any truth in its claims to have made a nuclear device small enough to fly on a missile.
The country says this week’s launch successfully of that capability, however. ICBMs leave the atmosphere before returning, so their payloads must be protected from the heat of re-entry. North Korea said its test missile carried a carbon heat shield keeping the nose cool enough to protect the delicate machinery that detonates a nuclear device.
Russia and China responded to the launch by calling for talks aimed at preventing further nuclear development in exchange for halting US and South Korean military exercises that threaten Kim Jong-un’s regime. Other allies also back talks, says Cirincione. Without talks, he fears escalating confrontation could lead to catastrophic war.
Missile drill
So it is worrying that the US and South Korea responded to North Korea’s test with a drill of their own missiles that “showcased precision targeting of the enemy’s leadership” , local time, according to a South Korean statement.
ICBMs are a game-changer because they extend North Korea’s reach from a local to global threat. An ICBM must be able to travel 5500 kilometres or more, flying out of the atmosphere and re-entering. Anchorage, Alaska, is 5500 km from the closest point in North Korea; Washington DC, is more than 10000 km.
In this week’s and earlier tests, North Korea’s rocket flew near vertical so it would descend close enough for mission control to track the missile’s radio signals – and also not hit land; like previous tests, the descent stage entered Japanese waters.
That meant it came down only 970 km away from its launch site. Both and the US initially as “a land-based, intermediate-range ballistic missile”, not a more worrying ICBM.
But David Wright of the Union of Concerned żěè¶ĚĘÓƵs in Washington DC says that its 37-minute flight time means a more horizontal, military trajectory would have carried it 6700 km – well into . The US later the missile was indeed an ICBM.
North Korea also says it used a mobile launcher, which makes missiles hard for an enemy to find and . This is exactly what a country needs to deter attack by guaranteeing retaliation – clearly North Korea’s concern.
Nuclear dreams
So all the evidence suggests Kim Jong-un is drawing ever closer to achieving his nuclear dreams. What can be done to stop him?
“There are three options,” says Cirincione. “Negotiate a freeze with North Korea; take military action to destroy test sites; increase sanctions and pressure.ĚýTrump has refused the first. The second is possible but carries a high risk of catastrophic war. The third is ineffective but most likely.”
But that third option means an uneasy short-term future, leaving the door open for the nuclear threat to grow. “The best we can hope for now is to sustainably deter, contain, constrain, and reform the regime over the long term,” says of the Center for American Progress in Washington DC.
And worse scenarios are not impossible. Amid sanctions, military posturing and “blustery tweets”, Cirincione fears, “North Korea or the US could push too far, provoking a military response that could quickly escalate out of control.”
