HUMANITY鈥橲 appetite for energy has driven up the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But here鈥檚 the good news: last year, emissions from energy use stayed flat for the third year in a row. Overall emissions, including from industry, grew less than 1 per cent for the third year in a row.
Energy emissions have stabilised or dropped at three other times in recent history, but only in economic downturns (see diagram). . At last count, 21 nations were seeing this 鈥渄ecoupling鈥� of energy emissions and economic growth, , France, Germany and the US.
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Read more: How we鈥檙e living with climate change and can beat it
快猫短视频 looks at the reality of climate change: what we鈥檙e doing about it, what more we must do and what the future holds in a warmer world
What鈥檚 going on? For a start, king coal is dying. The biggest fall has come in the US, where this dirtiest of fossil fuels is being pushed out by gas and renewables. In China and India 鈥� growing economies with huge energy appetites 鈥� concern over air pollution are playing a part. Satellite images show that, in India for example, construction of some new coal power stations appears to have been abandoned.
Renewables are also winning. Cheaper, more efficient turbines and photovoltaics mean that wind and solar energy cost the same or less to produce compared with fossil fuel power in more than 30 countries, even without government subsidies. According the World Economic Forum, this should extend to two-thirds of countries over the next few years. In 2016, the proportion of electricity from renewable sources other than large hydroelectric dams rose to 11.3 per cent, according to the UN Environment Programme, while renewables accounted for 55 per cent of the new capacity added worldwide. That in itself is turning into an economic win. According to the non-profit Environmental Defence Fund, solar and wind power in the US are creating jobs 12 times faster than the economy as a whole. , this should have been sorted at least a decade ago. But the trends do show that we can change our bad habits.
What has Trump changed?
Donald Trump鈥檚 pledge on 1 June to pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement and renegotiate it has undoubtedly damaged the country鈥檚 international standing. But its effect on global warming itself may be limited. By galvanising action in other countries, it might even end up producing a net win.
The US is the world鈥檚 second-largest emitter after China, accounting for some 5 of the 42 gigatonnes of CO2 emitted every year. Under the Paris agreement, nations set their own goals to cut emissions within the overall aim of limiting warming to 2掳C. The US had said it would reduce emissions by between 26 and 28 per cent in 2025 compared with 2005 levels.
It looks set to miss that target. But thanks to the shale gas revolution and the expansion of renewables, its emissions in 2014 were 7 per cent lower than in 2005. Such developments are likely to quicken. Barring huge additional subsidies, coal will continue to die a death. And states, cities and corporations have as much power to effect change as Washington does. In the wake of Trump鈥檚 announcement, California 鈥� the world鈥檚 sixth largest economy 鈥� and many more declared their commitment to the Paris goals. Trump is likely to be an obstacle, but not a bar, to progress.
The earliest the US can withdraw from the Paris agreement is 5 November 2020. Much can change domestically in the meantime, and other countries will march on towards a greener economy. In the wake of Trump鈥檚 speech, many governments reaffirmed their commitment to the principles of the Paris deal. China and the EU agreed to on climate, greener cities and transportation. No doubt the US will eventually join 鈥� but following, not leading.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淟iving with climate change: Have we reached peak emissions?鈥�
