US president Donald Trump is reportedly going to decide within days whether to keep his election promise to quit the Paris climate agreement. Leaving would be an illogical act of self-harm.
His decision is due after meeting the leaders of other major advanced economies at the later this week in Italy.
Under the Paris deal, nations agreed to report regularly, openly and transparently on their efforts to reduce emissions to try to keep the rise in global temperature “well below” 2°C. If efforts are minimal, it’s reported for all to see. The deal’s strength is in the psychology of public commitment. Expectation and peer pressure are key to keeping nations on track.
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If Trump decides to stay in but in name only, this may have little impact beyond US borders, as long as the US does not attempt to derail progress elsewhere. But if he quits, there are worries this could instigate contagion, as other nations get edgy and flee too, although this is unlikely: major emitters – Europe, China and India – have said they will stand firm.
A US departure may also hit the Green Climate Fund, a pot of money set up by the Paris deal to aid poorer nations’ efforts to develop low-carbon economies. The US is the biggest donor and has pledged $3 billion.
Ultimately, though, whichever path Trump takes, I don’t believe he will badly dent the massive market forces driving decarbonisation. The fact this is happening despite fossil fuel subsidies worth (or over $140 per ton of carbon dioxide emitted) shows the world has reached a tipping point. Decarbonisation may now be an unstoppable force.
This idea is bolstered by the fact that emissions growth from fossil fuels began levelling off in 2015 – before nations even signed the Paris agreement. Recent research that I was involved in showed that renewables are . If this pace continues, the world will decarbonise by 2050. Coal should leave the energy mix by around 2030 and oil by 2040.
What’s more, US industry is part of this. Electric car maker Tesla has become the most valuable auto manufacturer in the country, and the world’s most valuable company, Apple, is now running on 100 per cent renewables in 24 countries including the US.
Of all Trump’s policy choices, his attitude on climate ranks among the most illogical – and competition in this space is fierce. By leaving the Paris deal, he’ll change little and risk missing out on the economic gains of an energy revolution.
Even if you somehow ignore the real and present danger of damaging climate change, there’s the fact that at some point fossil fuels will run dry. Being ahead of the game on the next generation technology to power your nation . China and India see this and are . The clean energy revolution may well be their ticket to eclipse the US as economic superpowers.
Even as a climate change sceptic seemingly unbothered by a loss of international credibility, the logic for Trump to keep the US as an active participant in the Paris deal is unimpeachable. Unfortunately, logic has not played a large role in White House decision making recently.
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