The ink isn鈥檛 even wet yet. The Paris agreement to limit climate change will only be opened for signing on 22 April at the UN headquarters in New York. President Obama is likely to be keen to put his name to the document before leaving office 鈥� but his signature may now count for little.
That鈥檚 because the centrepiece of US plans for cutting emissions, the Clean Power Plan, has been put on hold by order of the US Supreme Court. White House officials have dismissed this as 鈥溾��. But others fear the consequences could be far more serious, delaying and weakening global efforts to cut emissions and putting the world on track to 3聽掳C of warming. So which is it?
The Clean Power Plan requires power plants 鈥� the main source of CO2 in the US 鈥� to cut emissions to two-thirds of 2005 levels by 2030 鈥� which represents about a 6 per cent cut in overall emissions. That is far short of the 80 per cent cut that some argue is required, but the plan is the single biggest step the US has taken on climate so far.
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As such, it has been important globally. It was a key element of the US-China bilateral commitments on climate agreed in 2014 and . These joint statements paved the way for the stronger-than-expected Paris agreement on climate change reached in December.
Not only did the US play a big role in getting the agreement 鈥� holding up the Clean Power Plan as evidence of its seriousness 鈥� the entire agreement was shaped to allow the US to sign up. If ratified, it will be legally binding in requiring countries to set targets for cutting emissions between 2020 and 2030, and to review these targets at regular intervals.
No legal obligation
However, there is no legal obligation for countries to meet their own targets. Why? Because if the targets were legally binding, the agreement would require the approval of the Republican-dominated US Congress 鈥� which it will not get. Without legally binding targets, the reasoning went, Obama can sign up the US without congressional approval.
Obama also had to use his executive powers to approve the Clean Power Plan last year, because it would not get congressional approval either 鈥� which is one of the reasons it faces fierce opposition from some quarters. So what happens now it鈥檚 been put on hold?
Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are two main scenarios. The first is that the setback is temporary and the plan does indeed come into force. It was not scheduled to come into force until 2022 anyway, so in theory Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton will have plenty of time to resolve the legal issues if one of them is elected president.
Nevertheless, a protracted legal battle could still be damaging. The Paris agreement comes into force only if 55 countries representing 55 per cent of global emissions sign up. It that other countries, such as Brazil and India, might now to drag their feet. Refuseniks would turn themselves into climate villains, so this may be unlikely.
Nightmare scenario
But this is not the only worry. It has always been clear that the voluntary emissions targets that countries are signing up to are not nearly enough to keep us under 2聽掳C of warming. But the Paris agreement can still deliver, claim people such as UN chief negotiator Christiana Figueres, because it includes a process for 鈥渞atcheting up the ambition鈥�. This process is , with some countries submitting new targets by 2020 and a 鈥済lobal stocktake鈥� in 2023.
The US is not going to be in a position to set a more ambitious target for cutting emissions until the fate of the Clean Power Plan is clear, which could take years. And if the second largest emitter in the world does not increase its ambitions, other countries could quite fairly say that they do not have to, either. Perhaps the delay will only be temporary, but time is of the essence.
Then there鈥檚 the second, nightmare scenario 鈥� the Clean Power Plan gets killed off. Some think this likely: Jeffrey Holmstead, an attorney who once worked at the US Environmental Protection Agency, told Nature that it was .
It was unusual for the Supreme Court to intervene in the way it did, and the five Republican members voted against the four Democrat members. Some think the vote reflects concern that Obama is going too far in 鈥� which bodes ill for climate efforts.
Without the Clean Power Plan, the US is Many other countries are also likely to struggle to meet their targets, a concluded last week. And the success of the Paris agreement ultimately depends on trust and peer pressure 鈥� the 鈥淚鈥檒l do it if you do it鈥� factor. With the US lagging rather than leading, despite all its promises and all the efforts made to ensure it could sign up to the Paris deal, there will be little pressure on other countries to meet their goals, let alone increase them.
