Future shock? (Image: Tyler E Nixon/Getty)
HUMAN beings are adept mental time travellers. Our ability to envisage how things might be in the future, which seems unmatched by any other species, is arguably what has made us the cultured and civilised animals we are. But if visualising possible futures is a game-changer, being able to predict the future would be nothing short of revolutionary.
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鈥淏eing able to see the future might not play to our advantage鈥�
Debate has long raged about whether that is even possible. According to one school of scientific thought, known as determinism, it is. Given enough data about each atom in the universe, we can know tomorrow鈥檚 football scores with as much certainty as yesterday鈥檚.
This mindset suffered a couple of blows during the 20th century. First, Heisenberg鈥檚 notorious uncertainty principle said it was impossible to know everything about a quantum system such as an atom. Second, chaos theory taught us that the future behaviour of any physical system is extraordinarily sensitive to small changes 鈥� the flap of a butterfly鈥檚 wings can set off a hurricane, as the saying goes.
But even if it鈥檚 theoretically impossible, in practice we might get as close as makes no difference. Computers are already producing ever more accurate simulations of future reality, from tomorrow鈥檚 weather to long-term climate trends to the eventual fate of our galaxy. Extrapolating from current number-crunching capabilities, near-perfect climate prediction, for example, should be possible within a century or so, says climate scientist of NASA鈥檚 Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
Such soothsaying ability might not play to our advantage, says , a philosopher at King鈥檚 College London. Predictive software might ultimately deprive us of that evolutionarily hard-won ability to think creatively and improvise our way out of dangerous situations. Alternatively, unrestrained by any fear of failure, our hubris may accelerate our destruction of the world around us.
The outcome might depend on who has access to the predictive tools, says , a psychologist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany. In the wrong hands, they might help prop up dictatorships or establish commercial monopolies. But more socially minded governments could use them to ready their citizens for challenges such as approaching environmental disasters.
Or, Pleskac thinks, our supremely adaptive minds might finally find themselves overwhelmed by such omniscience 鈥� and reject it in favour of a quiet life. 鈥淭hey might say, all that information is there, but I don鈥檛 want to have access to it,鈥� says Pleskac. 鈥淚t may be quite adaptive to be ignorant. People may just want to be left alone.鈥�
Read more: 鈥�10 discoveries that would change everything鈥�
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淲hat if 鈥� We discover we can see the future?鈥�
