I WATCH as two people build a flying machine. Suddenly, an engine slips free from its tether. It rolls down a grassy hill, arriving feet from a precipice, on the brink of a wide blue abyss. They both scramble to catch the device, grabbing it just before it tumbles over the edge.
This is . Set for a beta release later this year, it鈥檚 a multiplayer game in which players build airships to explore mysterious floating islands. Its developer, London-based Bossa Studios, says it is the first game to bring real-world physics and causality to a massive online world. Every action a player takes is governed by lifelike mechanics, and the results have an impact on every other gamer.
鈥淧layers will be able to explore and do whatever they want,鈥� says Bossa co-founder Henrique Olifiers. 鈥淭his is game design stuff that nobody could do before.鈥� The technology is poised to change the way we manage the real world too, allowing unprecedentedly accurate simulations of everything from fisheries to cancer cells to whole economies.
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Building a virtual world with complex, unpredictable interactions between objects and players is a challenge because processing the ever-changing positions of all the elements overloads servers. Instead, most large multiplayer games use tricks and illusions to spoof complexity.
In Worlds Adrift, items can be moved around in an incredibly lifelike manner. Designer Luke Williams shows off the gameplay by dragging a large piece of machinery to the top of a column. 鈥淚f someone walks underneath here I can drop it on them,鈥� he says, with a mischievous smile.
A London start-up called is powering this live demonstration. Rather than make single servers simulate a whole sector of the virtual world, it computes individual elements using connected 鈥渨orker鈥� programs, running across a network of servers.
鈥淭he workers are like a swarm of bees or ants doing little things,鈥� says Herman Narula, Improbable鈥檚 CEO. Acting together, they can achieve more than any individual server. The approach allows for low-cost simulations in which realistic interactions are ubiquitous.
Narula believes this level of detail is increasingly important for gamers. 鈥淧eople want to deepen their illusion,鈥� he says. 鈥淟ook at the rise of virtual reality and HD graphics. There鈥檚 clearly a demand to be in these worlds.鈥�
鈥淧eople want to deepen their illusion. There鈥檚 clearly a demand to be in these worlds鈥�
The developers of Worlds Adrift want to realise a world in which people鈥檚 actions aren鈥檛 just lifelike, but have permanent consequences in the game. Trees will grow and obey the rules of a complex ecosystem, as will the animals that inhabit the landscape. When players cut down trees in a forest to build flying machines, those precise trees will stay cut down, says Olifiers.
Improbable aims to power more than games. Researchers and businesses can also use the platform to build large-scale simulations of real-world systems. Some are already in the making.
At the University of Oxford鈥檚 Institute for New Economic Thinking, and his team are planning to use Improbable to create a sophisticated model of the entire UK housing market, among other things.
Economists frequently rely on statistical modelling to make predictions. But alternative approaches in which buyers and investors, for example, are simulated on a more granular scale can offer a better understanding of how individuals鈥� behaviour affects the economy as a whole.
Revolutionary potential
These models often run up against a lack of computational resources, exactly the problem that Improbable solves for large game worlds. Pugh says that even supercomputers struggle with the level of complexity required, but initial tests with Improbable have been impressive. 鈥淚t has the potential to be quite revolutionary,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e solved the scalability issue that has handicapped building large-scale models of systems like the economy.鈥�
If successful, Pugh鈥檚 models will be a powerful new tool for economic forecasts. They might inform a bank鈥檚 decision to lower or raise interest rates, or predict the long-term consequences of a new government policy. 鈥淥r you could go all the way up to simulating the world economy,鈥� says Eric Bonabeau, CEO of Icosystem, a consultancy based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which builds models for businesses and the military.
Swarm simulations could also paint a clearer picture of the planet鈥檚 ecosystems, helping us conserve them.
, of the University of Oxford鈥檚 School of Geography and the Environment, is looking at fisheries off the West Coast of the US. 鈥淭here鈥檚 evidence that productivity is probably going down in the ecosystem due to climate change,鈥� he says. 鈥淒etermining how a fishery should be managed as those changes kick in is quite a difficult problem.鈥�
Up until now, the interactions between humans and the marine environment have been too complex to model accurately, he says. 鈥淭he platform Improbable has developed is hugely impressive and should help us to produce the class of highly detailed models necessary to answer these kinds of questions.鈥�
Improbable鈥檚 technology has medical applications too. 鈥淵ou could simulate cancer growth at scale, by simulating all of the cancer cells that are growing,鈥� says Bonabeau.
鈥淵ou could simulate cancer growth at scale by simulating all of the cancer cells that are growing鈥�
Narula says Improbable could be used to model large transport systems, helping those who manage traffic flow. And he says the UK鈥檚 Ministry of Defence has been in touch, though they won鈥檛 reveal why they鈥檙e interested.
There are those who remain somewhat sceptical, at least of Improbable鈥檚 potential to transform game design. Jeff Orkin, a seasoned game developer and researcher, says using the platform to power complex in-game physics is interesting. But he worries that players might not always understand the sheer complexity of the world they inhabit. 鈥淚t can be frustrating for players if things are happening and they don鈥檛 know what caused them,鈥� he says.
The same sort of confusion is what often makes living in the real world vexing too. But if Improbable fulfils its biggest promises, then we might soon glean a much better understanding of why complex events unfold the way they do.
Perhaps these detailed simulations will let us take better control over systems which seem to have a mind of their own, for now. But at the very least, when it comes to gaming, simulating a world in detail could make for one hell of a playground.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淭hrough the looking glass鈥�
