快猫短视频

鈥淵our job as a poker player is to identify the situations in which you have a very good chance of winning and risk as much money as possible.鈥�

So, that old question: how much is poker about luck?
Luck is a huge factor. Your job as a poker player is to identify the situations in which you have a very good chance of winning and risk as much money as possible. The skilful players will give themselves a better chance of winning, but no matter how good you are, there is so much luck involved in any specific hand. Of course, given the law of large numbers, the luck eventually evens out. So the more tournaments you play, the less luck is involved in the game.

How important is it to understand probability theory?
There is a lot of simple maths you need to know and memorise. For instance, what are the odds of making a flush [five cards of the same suit] if you have two in your hand and there are two on the table? After that, the maths is just one of many factors you can use to figure out what someone has in her hand. There are 鈥�maths players鈥� who rely mostly on that aspect, but normally you use some combination of maths, deductive reasoning and psychology. For me, reasoning is the biggest part of it 鈥� taking all the possibilities and illuminating each possibility until I end up with the most likely scenario.

You are known for being quite aggressive in poker. Presumably that means you take greater risks.
Exactly. Being aggressive increases the probability that I will win the hand, but it also means I鈥檓 playing bigger pots with more risk than my average competitors. Let鈥檚 say I have a flush draw [one card short of a full flush] in hearts, and I know that if a fifth heart comes out I鈥檓 going to win the pot. I might wager a lot of money trying to get my opponent to fold, though if they don鈥檛 fold I still have a reasonable chance of winning the pot by making my flush after the fifth card is dealt. That means I can win when the bluff succeeds, or when I make the best hand..

When is it a bad idea to bluff?
It鈥檚 never a bad idea to bluff if you think your opponent is going to fold. But the less chance you have of winning the pot with your cards, the more confident you have to be that your opponent will fold for the play to be profitable. If you have a terrible hand and the final card has been dealt, the only way you can win is by bluffing because there are no more cards that can help you. That鈥檚 the time you need to be really confident that your opponent is going to fold. Otherwise it鈥檚 not a good idea to bluff.

Do you think of yourself as a gambler?
I don鈥檛 really like to gamble, which is a funny thing for a professional gambler to say. But I prefer not to. If I bet this hand and I know I have a 60 per cent chance of winning, I would much rather you paid me 60 per cent of the pot right now than allow the cards to determine the fate of the hand. But unfortunately for me, that鈥檚 not part of the game.

How do you cope with losing?
You will inevitably have down swings 鈥� I鈥檓 in one right now. There have been lots of situations where I鈥檝e had an 80 per cent chance of winning and lost. It鈥檚 happened an incomprehensible number of times in a row, something like 20 of the last 25 tournaments. Those situations can be demoralising, but poker players have to be rational. I know that the next time I have an 80 per cent chance to win, whether I win or lose has nothing to do with the past 25 times. I鈥檝e always been an eerily rational person 鈥� in poker we call this not being results-orientated 鈥� so I just keep my head up and know that the next time I鈥檓 a huge favourite to win, I鈥檓 probably going to. And that鈥檚 enough for me.

Read more: 鈥�Chance: How randomness rules our world鈥�