More bad news for Mitt Romney: the Republican party鈥檚 scepticism about climate change seems likely to play badly with voters who haven鈥檛 yet decided who to back in November鈥檚 US presidential election.
, run by Yale University and George Mason University in Virginia, has found that, when it comes to their views on climate change, 鈥渦ndecideds鈥� look remarkably similar to supporters of Barack Obama.
Of the 1061 people polled, about three-quarters are judged likely to vote, based on their registration, stated intentions and past turnout. Among them, just 27 per cent of Romney backers believed global warming was human-caused, compared to 65 per cent of the Obama supporters.
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Of the 87 undecideds who were likely voters in the sample, 65 per cent believed global warming was human-caused, and 61 per cent said the issue would help guide their vote.
Because the sample contained just 87 undecideds who were likely to vote, there is a large margin of error surrounding these numbers. Still, the difference between undecideds and Romney supporters was statistically significant.
鈥淲e鈥檇 have expected them to be somewhere in the middle,鈥� says , who heads the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. 鈥淏ut we find they鈥檙e very similar to likely Obama voters.鈥�
Consistent results
The results are broadly consistent with released in December 2011, in which a team led by of Stanford University in California presented statements by hypothetical political candidates, and asked people whether these candidates would win their support.
This suggested that Republicans, in particular, are likely to gain votes by taking 鈥済reen鈥� positions, and lose votes by expressing scepticism about climate change.
So why has the Republican party largely embraced climate scepticism? Krosnick speculates that it is due to the influence of wealthy donors who oppose action to limit climate change. Still, he doubts whether the votes gained through spending on campaign ads will counter those lost by taking a sceptical position.
While Romney has acknowledged that human activities are contributing to climate change, on the issue, and in accepting the Republican nomination mocked Obama鈥檚 efforts to .
Leiserowitz doesn鈥檛 expect climate change to be a key issue in the election, but with the , the Republican candidate will need every vote he can get.
