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The risk of an influenza pandemic is fact, not fiction

In the light of recent findings, now is not the time to be complacent

Read more: Five easy mutations to make bird flu a lethal pandemic

SOME people don鈥檛 seem to believe anything they鈥檙e told about flu. You鈥檒l often hear that the swine flu pandemic of 2009, along with the spectre of H5N1 bird flu, were 鈥渟cares鈥 backed by some conspiracy or other.

Of course, the 2009 pandemic was real, it just wasn鈥檛 as bad as it could have been. Bird flu is about as bad as flu can get, and the only thing that has kept it at bay has been its inability to spread easily between people.

That may have been a temporary situation. Work reported last week suggests that just a few mutations could make H5N1 highly contagious in humans without losing its ability to kill 60 per cent of those it infects (see 鈥淔ive easy mutations to make bird flu a lethal pandemic鈥).

Now more than ever, the world needs its flu defences to be in order. The 2009 pandemic showed they aren鈥檛, with vaccine arriving late, in relatively few countries. And because the pandemic was limited, investment to improve vaccines is far from booming.

It should be. If vaccines are not ready fast enough after the next pandemic hits, there will still be conspiracy theories, but the 鈥渟care鈥 will be all too real.

Topics: Bird flu / Epidemics / pandemics / Swine flu