Satellite today, monkey tomorrow? Or perhaps a nuclear missile?
On 15 June, Iran put its second ever satellite, Rasad-1, 260 kilometres above Earth. The nation hopes to use the experience to launch a monkey into space this year and, by 2019, a human. The worry is that such rockets could also be used to fire missiles at targets on Earth.
At 15 kilograms, Rasad-1 may be tiny, but it is a boost to Iran鈥檚 space capabilities, says Brian Weeden of the think tank, headquartered in Washington DC.
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鈥淧eople wondered after the first time if they just got lucky,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ow that they鈥檝e put two satellites up there, that indicates perhaps it wasn鈥檛 a fluke the first time. It demonstrates that their rocket technology is pretty good.鈥�
Monkey on-board
Rasad-1 is reportedly taking low-resolution images of Earth. But its launch seems intended mainly to give the country more experience in launching and operating satellites.
It is one step forward in what looks like an ambitious space plan, says Laura Grego of the in Cambridge, Massachusetts. 鈥淭hey have this pretty ambitious list of six or seven satellites over the next three years,鈥� she says.
At least one of them is expected to carry an animal on board. Iran鈥檚 state-run television company says the country will into orbit on a one-way trip 鈥渓ater this year鈥�. It also says Iran plans to launch an astronaut into space by 2019.
鈥淭he monkey seems perfectly plausible,鈥� Weeden says. Flying and safely returning a human to Earth by 2019 is more of a stretch, but it might be possible for Iran if it is a suborbital hop rather than a more challenging orbital flight, he says.
Dual use
Countries tend to pursue human space flight for the prestige it brings, so that could be Iran鈥檚 motivation, he says. 鈥淥ne possibility is that Iran sees this as a way to bolster their image both domestically and internationally,鈥� he says.
There has been concern in western countries, especially in the US, about Iran鈥檚 space programme. That is because rockets that can launch satellites can also be used as missiles to attack targets on the ground 鈥� a concern enhanced by western suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, which it denies.
However, the rocket that launched Rasad-1 appears to have been in capability to the Safir-2 rocket used to launch Iran鈥檚 first satellite in 2009. Safir-2 is not powerful enough to send a nuclear warhead as far as the US from Iran.
Rocketry 鈥渃ertainly is a dual use technology鈥�, Weeden says. Countries can help avoid arousing suspicions by being open about their plans, he adds, by announcing their launches ahead of time, for example.
