快猫短视频

PREDICTING the future is a tricky business, yet scientists and economists keep publishing books that confidently tell us what will happen next year, or 50 years from now. These 鈥渆xperts鈥�, says journalist Dan Gardner, have an appalling record for accuracy, but that doesn鈥檛 seem to bother them, or their eager readers, one bit.

One target in this book is Paul Ehrlich, who published in 1968, forecasting famines in the 1970s as overpopulation swamped food supplies. It didn鈥檛 happen, but Ehrlich built on his success, wrote more bestsellers and even now says he was essentially correct.

Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books: we cannot tolerate uncertainty, and demand to know what鈥檚 in store. Supply follows demand and the predictions never stop.