EVERY news report says so, but will the floods in Pakistan really trigger widespread disease outbreaks? Aid agencies are warning of possible epidemics of water-borne diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases, yet such events are rare in the wake of flooding, according to the World Health Organization.
describes how health teams recently assessed 3809 individuals across the flood-hit Peshawar district. Of those, 14 per cent had diarrhoea and 16 per cent were found to be suffering from respiratory tract infections. The figures may seem high, but it was too early to make predictions of an outbreak, the WHO concludes.
John Watson and colleagues at the WHO argued in a that reports of disease following disasters are often overblown. A lack of data on prior disease prevalence in an area can mean that reports of endemic diseases are misinterpreted as the early stages of an epidemic, say the researchers. , the risk of bacterial diarrhoea and respiratory disease in Pakistan is generally high.
Advertisement
There have been early reports of cholera cases in the Swat valley region, and aid agencies say they are preparing for an outbreak. However, if recent history is anything to go by, an epidemic might not follow: similar fears were raised following the south Asian floods of 2007, but they proved unfounded.
