As the dreaded autumn wave ends and official deaths remain relatively low, the backlash against the H1N1 pandemic response is in full swing. Claims range from a massive overreaction by health authorities to a conspiracy cooked up by big pharma. But while swine flu may have boosted profits for vaccine manufacturers, the reality of the pandemic is more complicated.
First off, the pandemic isn鈥檛 over. While cases in western Europe and North America have tailed off, the virus is still spreading in . Meanwhile, Europe and North America could see cases rise again, if the flu pandemic of 1957-8 is anything to go by (see graph).
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By January 1958, following an initially low death rate, officials assumed the pandemic was over, and vaccine went unused. But then there was a wave of deaths in the US in February, which might otherwise have been avoided. 鈥淭hey had vaccine but they didn鈥檛 encourage its use,鈥� says of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. To prevent a similar scenario, the CDC recommends continued vaccination. Yet several countries and US states have vaccine gluts, and many European countries are cutting orders and selling or giving vaccine away.
Even if we don鈥檛 see a 1958-style comeback, classifying the pandemic as a damp squib at this point would be premature. Although the World Health Organization鈥檚 official death toll stands at 13,000 worldwide, this is likely to be an underestimate. 鈥淲e anticipate that these figures will be much larger,鈥� Keiji Fukuda, head of flu at the WHO, (PDF). Many cases are not seen by doctors, or are misdiagnosed: the CDC estimates that flu directly causes in the US.
False perspectives
What鈥檚 more, straight death counts mask what was particularly scary about 2009 H1N1: that it doesn鈥檛 just strike the old and infirm. About 90聽per cent of seasonal flu victims are over 65. In contrast, 88聽per cent of H1N1鈥檚 victims have been under 65.
The perception that H1N1 is harmless may stem from ordinary people rarely seeing the severe cases, says of the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, who ran the CDC鈥檚 flu surveillance in 1957 and famously led the eradication of smallpox. Of a similar misperception in 1957, he says: 鈥淎 quarter of Americans had flu, and there were excess deaths. But for one watching from close range, it did little more than disrupt school football schedules.鈥�
What about the millions paid to vaccine companies? All the scientists contacted by 快猫短视频 say launching vaccine production at the start of the pandemic was appropriate. 鈥淲hen a virus emerges from the animal reservoir you don鈥檛 know how it will behave,鈥� says of the World Organisation for Animal Health鈥檚 flu reference lab in Legnaro, Italy. 鈥淲e were quite lucky with this virus. Would you prefer to have no vaccine? This was the only thing we could do.鈥�
