Fat chance then. Even with all the green power we muster, preventing dangerous climate change by the end of the century is 鈥渂arely feasible鈥�. So says an analysis of how fast low-carbon energy sources can be introduced.
For a 50:50 chance of keeping a global temperature rise within 2 掳C by 2100, we must halve emissions by 2050. This is the message of climate models by of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, and colleagues. That means 70 per cent of global energy production must be zero-emissions by 2050.
To see if that target was realistic, the team used factors such as the average rate of technology diffusion in the past. Our prospects are poor even if we roll out sources like wind and nuclear power as fast as we can, plus any new ones that become available before 2050.
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鈥淲e have only a slim chance,鈥� says at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Norwich, UK. 鈥淚t looks like we鈥檒l have to prepare for warming greater than 2 掳C or hope that geoengineering will get us out of trouble.鈥�
Journal reference: , (in press)
