Runaway warming of the Arctic threatens to spread climate havoc across the globe in the coming decades, according to a . But has the process already begun? Climate scientists meeting at the World Climate Conference in Geneva, Switzerland, where the report was launched today, are in two minds.
Some reckon the WWF report may understate future events. The report鈥檚 author, climate adviser Martin Sommerkorn, reckons 90 per cent of the Arctic鈥檚 surface permafrost could be lost by 2100. But Jerry Meehl of the US government鈥檚 National Center for Atmospheric Research at Boulder, Colorado, told the conference that unless humans curb their greenhouse gas emissions 鈥渢here will be zero permafrost by 2100鈥�.
Melting permafrost is likely to release huge volumes of methane, accelerating global warming faster than previous predictions, according to many speakers at the conference. Fears of such releases prompted another US government agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this week to , sniffing for methane.
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What it did last summer
Conversely, the WWF鈥檚 headline-grabbing claim that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007 was a tipping point in Arctic warming may be wide of the mark. Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at Britain鈥檚 Met Office, said less ice disappeared in the summer of 2008. And that there had probably been even less melting there this year, though final reports will only come in over the next two weeks.
Met Office scientists reckon they know what really happened in 2007. 鈥淗igh pressure sat over the Arctic, which caused cloudless skies and extra melting,鈥� Pope told 快猫短视频. 鈥淚t was basically natural variability, and 2007 was an outlier.鈥�
One theory discussed at the meeting is that the unusual high pressure was connected to the Pacific climate phenomenon called La Ni帽a. But now its opposite, El Ni帽o, is forming 鈥� reducing the chances of an Arctic refreeze next year.
鈥淎ll this shows that we have to be careful not to assume that everything is caused by climate change,鈥� said Pope. But, whatever the short-term swings, the long-term warming will get its way in the end.
Persistent warming has been making Arctic ice thinner. 鈥淪o when we do get a sunny summer, the effects are much greater than in the past,鈥� said Pope. The world, it seems, is skating on thin ice.
