A THINK tank with links to the Chinese government has predicted that the nation鈥檚 carbon emissions could peak in 2030. This conclusion, in the 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report released by the Energy Research Institute, is at odds with the government鈥檚 insistence that the country鈥檚 rapid economic growth will mean that emissions cannot decline before 2050.
If China adopts an 鈥渆nhanced low carbon scenario鈥� with very stringent policies, emissions could peak in 2030 and fall to 1.4 billion tonnes in 2050, equivalent to their 2005 level, the report says. This would be 鈥渄ifficult but doable鈥�, says lead author Jiang Kejun.
Pan Jiahua, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences鈥� Research Centre for Sustainable Development and the nation鈥檚 leading climate economist, says that rapid progress in developing clean technologies means China could reduce emissions earlier than 2050. 鈥淏ut I would think it would be safer to set the peak time at 2035,鈥� he says.
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Pan says the report could put pressure on the government to compromise on its refusal to adopt emissions cuts in the run-up to the UN climate negotiations in December.
