IN JANUARY this year, the Indian space probe, Chandrayaan-1, embarked on something of a nostalgia tour. Over the course of four days, the craft flew high above the lunar surface, methodically mapping the landing sites of all six crewed Apollo missions that touched down on the moon.
The purpose, according to P. Sreekumar of the , was to confirm the Apollo missions’ findings about the moon’s surface and rocks. Yet it may have had an additional motive: India is among a handful of countries determined to land a human on the moon.
The architects of the cold war-era space race could hardly have imagined the number of nations that would follow their lead. India, Japan, China and the European Space Agency have added to the traffic in lunar orbit, with most of these missions carrying scientific instruments from other countries. Four of the six members of this lunar explorer’s club – the US, Russia, China and India – have professed an intention to send people to the moon. Which country, if any, will succeed?
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If technology were the only factor, this new race would be America’s to lose. NASA’s , unveiled in 2006, has the ultimate goal of establishing a permanently inhabited base on the moon. To do this, the programme includes a design for the Orion crew capsule with up to six seats, the Altair lunar lander, and a new booster system called , which uses components from both the Apollo-era Saturn rocket and the space shuttle. There are two versions of Ares: Ares I, designed to transport crew and the Orion capsule, and the more powerful Ares V, designed to transport supplies and the Altair lunar lander.
Under current plans, a crewed lunar mission is set for 2020. First, Ares I would be launched into Earth orbit, where the Orion capsule containing the crew would detach. The capsule would then rendezvous and link up with the Altair lander once it had reached Earth orbit, before heading to the moon.
All is not well with Constellation, however. NASA’s 2010 budget continues to support the programme, though looming cuts could see the Ares booster system being scrapped in favour of improved versions of existing rockets. What’s more, US president Barack Obama has convened a panel to review all human space-flight activities. Such uncertainty has a knock-on effect on the programme’s timing, and many within NASA now believe the 2020 goal to be unrealistic.
If national ambition, rather than technology, were the main ingredient of a successful lunar mission, the winner might well be China or India. Both governments are keen to use their space programme to make strong statements of national prowess. “The Chinese have the political system, the financial capabilities and the political need to show parity with America,” says Jeffrey Manber, an American space entrepreneur who has also worked for the Russian space company Energia. “The next footprints on the moon will be those of taikonauts.”
“If national ambition were the main ingredient for success, the winner might well be China or India”
China stunned the world in 2003 with its first human space flight and is reported to be working on a space station. Its media frequently boast about imminent plans to send people to the moon and even Mars, but some remain unconvinced. “The story that China wants to undertake a moon programme seems to be wishful thinking on the part of a few people in the Chinese space programme, rather than official policy,” said Roger Launius, senior curator for space history at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum in Washington DC, and author of several books about the political and technological history of space flight. He notes that none of China’s white papers – the closest available insight into Chinese space policy – states a firm intention of sending humans to the moon.
As for India, its human space flight programme is a mere three years old. Despite the success of Chandrayaan-1, the country’s first crewed mission won’t happen until 2014. Any lunar mission will be much later.
What about the Russians? Earlier this year, the agency that first sent humans into space announced plans to build a new rocket capable of sending humans to the moon. Yet grand pronouncements from Russia are a regular occurrence in the space community; few translate into actual hardware.
There are many who hope that the next humans on the moon will represent an international effort. Indeed, the world’s human space flight programmes are intertwined as never before. The Chinese and Indians work closely with the Russians, who are also key partners with NASA on the International Space Station – which has hosted visitors from 15 countries.
Might the ISS itself provide the key to travel beyond Earth orbit, to the moon or even to Mars? Yes, says Launius, though not in a way that would please NASA. “In 100 years, the ISS will be remembered for the remarkable technological feat of cooperatively building and operating it, and probably not for much else,” he says. “I think that its cooperative aspects are the way forward.”
Read more: Apollo 11: Why the moon still matters
