NASA requires a transformation if it is to reach the Moon and Mars, a top-level advisory panel said at its last public hearing on Tuesday. But the biggest problem may be transforming attitudes toward the space programme鈥檚 budget.
The President鈥檚 Commission on Moon, Mars, and Beyond is tasked with suggesting ways NASA can achieve the ambitious goals set out by President George W Bush in January. Those aims included putting astronauts back on the Moon by 2020 and then on Mars.
The commission is not worrying about specific details, says its chairman Pete Aldridge, a former astronaut and undersecretary of defense. But the panel will deliver in early June a list of 鈥渢he 10 major things that the president must do鈥� to get the Moon-Mars programme off the ground.
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Transforming NASA鈥檚 management and culture are the top priorities, say the panel, echoing recommendations made following the Columbia shuttle disaster.
鈥淭he NASA that has been has become inwardly focused and 鈥� a drag on the budget,鈥� said panel member Robert Walker, former head of the House Science and Technology Committee. 鈥淭he NASA that can be is risk taking and economically vibrant.鈥�
The hard stuff
Aldridge called for creating a structure that 鈥渕ust be sustainable over decades,鈥� with 鈥渕ore private sector involvement鈥� as well as international partnerships. Potential international partners have expressed interest, Aldridge said, but with the architecture still unknown, no one knows what contributions they can make.
Prospects for corporate involvement also are unclear, although he urged a model where 鈥淣ASA does the hard stuff and the private sector does the rest.鈥�
The hardest thing to transform may be the budget. The US government is geared to having an overall price tag for every programme, but Aldridge said 鈥渢his is a pay-as-you-go strategy,鈥� with the money coming from a NASA budget set at $16 to $17 billion in current dollars.
鈥淗ow much it鈥檚 actually going to cost is very difficult to predict because we don鈥檛 know what technologies we鈥檙e going to be using 20 years from now.鈥� He said a 鈥渟piral development strategy鈥� is much easier to keep on budget and on schedule because it takes small steps that can be predicted much better than trying to leap directly to full capabilities.
Budget breakdown
In fact, in response to a question from 快猫短视频, Aldridge said that only part of NASA鈥檚 budget will be available.
Until the space shuttle is retired around 2010, it and the international space station will consume about $7 billion a year. Once the shuttle is grounded, the station alone will consume $2 billion a year until NASA drops out after 2016. Another $5 billion a year goes to space science, earth science, and aeronautics.
It will therefore take until 2019 for total spending on the Moon-Mars mission to reach the $100 billion range 鈥� and that must include paying for the development a new crew exploration vehicle to replace the shuttle.