The UK government has raised the possibility that missile interception systems could be built in the UK as part of an allied defence initiative.
A 鈥減ublic discussion paper鈥� issued by the Ministry of Defence on Tuesday sets out the case for joining the controversial US missile defence programme, which is designed to counter the threat of ballistic weapons launched by enemy states or terrorists.
The US programme has faced criticism from experts who question the effectiveness of such a defence system and the cost of implementing it. But political commentators believe the UK government may be preparing the ground for participation, which would meet with substantial domestic opposition.
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The MoD paper warns that the UK must consider the threat of states and terrorists launching ballistic missiles carrying biological and chemical weapon payloads. It names North Korea and Iraq as possible aggressors.
鈥淭he United States is now committed to a major technological effort to counter this threat,鈥� the paper says. 鈥淏ritain too has a responsibility to take stock of the issues involved and to consider our options for addressing this potential threat, including whether we should play a role in the US programme.鈥�
Threat of retaliation
The paper notes that the threat of retaliation may not be enough to deter potential attackers. In order to extend protection from a US programme, 鈥渋nterceptor sites鈥� in northern Europe might be needed, it says, with additional sites in Eastern Europe if the system were to protect the whole European Union.
The US military began missile defence development in 1999 and has conducted seven tests so far. These used interceptor missiles to destroy the target. But some observers have accused the tests of failing to simulate real conditions.
鈥淭he targets are not particularly realistic,鈥� John Pike, an analyst with Global Security, told 快猫短视频. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a small number of decoys and the decoys are obviously different from the warheads. The testing has basically been to validate that the missiles can distinguish between different objects.鈥�
Pike thinks intercepting missiles that have dispatched realistic decoys may be 鈥渁n intractable problem鈥�. However, he does not discount the possibility of destroying missiles soon after launch 鈥� boost phase interception 鈥� while the missiles rockets are still firing.
He also believes experimental defence technologies, such as directed energy laser weapons, could possibly be used both from the air and on the ground. The US has successfully tested a ground-based laser system developed with the Israeli Military.
Political balance
Duncan Lennox, editor of the defence industry publication Jane鈥檚 Strategic Weapons Systems says the US tests are at an early stage and should not be pre-judged. He says of the discussion paper: 鈥淚n my view, they鈥檝e laid it out pretty fairly.鈥�
Lennox believes a Europe-wide missile defence system could be built. He supports the paper鈥檚 conclusion that the Royal Air Force base in Fylingdales, North Yorkshire, would be well suited to monitoring ballistic missile launches from thousands of miles away. The base already provides support for US nuclear early warning systems.
However, the political balancing of the great expense of a missile defence system against the likely risk will be difficult, particularly as the paper itself acknowledges that 鈥渢he precise extent of the threat 鈥� is certainly difficult to quantify鈥�. A government discussion paper raises the possibility that the UK could join the US programme to counter the potential threat from rogue states