The US evidence delivered to the United Nations to convince the world that Iraq has not given up its prohibited weapons of mass destruction has impressed the majority of independent analysts.
Experts describe the satellite images, intercepted telephone conversations and defector鈥檚 testimonies as compelling, although some say the evidence falls short of supporting all US claims. Secretary of State Colin Powell presented the information to the UN in New York on Wednesday.
Patrick Garrett, an analyst with the US military think tank Global Security, describes the November 2002 satellite images of a chemical decontamination truck close to a munitions bunker as 鈥減retty damning evidence鈥� that the bunker contained chemical weapons. He says Global Security is currently trying to verify the accuracy of all the satellite images produced by the US.
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Images of specific types of rocket test stands provide compelling evidence that Iraq has tried to build missiles capable of travelling over 1000 kilometres, he says. UN resolutions prohibit Iraq from developing missiles with a range above 150 km.
But, of the telephone recordings that appear to reveal Iraqi government officials deceiving UN inspectors, Garrett says: 鈥淚t鈥檚 open to interpretation as to how true they are.鈥�
鈥淧owell laid out a fairly comprehensive circumstantial case,鈥� Garrett told 快猫短视频. 鈥淲hen you look at the whole presentation in its entirety, it鈥檚 a really rather comprehensive and compelling argument.鈥�
Aluminum tubes
Powell also argued his evidence showed that Iraq has continued its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. He focused on the aluminium tubes found by weapons inspectors that some experts believe could be used as centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
He dismissed suggestions that the tubes were designed for ordinary rockets. 鈥淲hy would they continue refining the specifications, go to all that trouble for something that, if it was a rocket, would soon be blown into shrapnel when it went off?鈥� Powell said.
Robert Norris, author of The Nuclear Weapons Databook says this new evidence was persuasive. He told The Guardian newspaper that it 鈥渃onfirms that Saddam Hussein is trying to reconstitute his nuclear programme鈥�.
Lost location
But not all military analysts were convinced. Satellite image expert Bhupendra Jasani, at King鈥檚 College London, says it is difficult to accurately identify bases, weapons and vehicles shown in the satellite images. He adds that the locations depicted in the images are not clear.
鈥淲hen I look at it I can鈥檛 be sure what I鈥檓 seeing,鈥� he says. Jasani believes the US has much sharper satellite images, but was probably keen to disguise its real intelligence capabilities.
Jasani notes that the defector鈥檚 testimonies, widely used to bolster Powell鈥檚 presentation, may be unreliable either due to interrogation techniques or the defector鈥檚 desire to impress. The telephone conversations could easily have been tampered with, he says. But, if genuine, they may have been captured via satellite 鈥� a surveillance capability never publicly demonstrated before.
鈥淎ll those things put together give you more confidence, but I鈥檓 not fully convinced,鈥� Jasani told 快猫短视频
Special effects
Iraq has dismissed the US evidence as lies. Saddam Hussein鈥檚 advisor General Amer al-Saadi described Powell鈥檚 speech as 鈥渁 typical American show, complete with stunts and special effects.鈥�
UN resolution 1441 places the onus on Iraq to prove that its prohibited weapons programmes have been dismantled or face 鈥渟erious consequences鈥�. The UN chief weapons inspector Hans Blix says Iraq is failing to provide this proof.
But military action backed by all UN security council members does not appear imminent. While many analysts found the US intelligence compelling, the nations least in favour of war reacted to it with renewed calls to give weapons inspectors in Iraq more time.