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Word ‘bursts’ may reveal online trends

A new algorithm that spots jumps in a word's rate of usage could indicate fast-emerging trends in weblogs or customer complaints

Searching for sudden 鈥渂ursts鈥 in the usage of particular words could be used to rapidly identify new trends and sort information more efficiently, says a US computer scientist.

Jon Kleinberg, at Cornell University in New York, has developed computer algorithms that identify bursts of word use in documents.

While other popular search techniques simply count the number of words or phrases in documents, Kleinberg鈥檚 approach also takes into account the rate at which the word usage increases.

Kleinberg suggests that the method could be applied to weblogs to track new social trends. For example, identifying word bursts in the hundreds of thousands of personal diaries now on the web could help advertisers quickly spot an emerging craze.

Hot or not

The algorithms used to identify these sudden bursts are relatively simple, but very powerful, says Christos Papadimitriou, at the University of California at Berkeley.

鈥淭he key is to find unexpected changes in the frequency of the appearance of words,鈥 he told 快猫短视频. Papadimitriou agrees the method could prove valuable when searching for new trends in weblogs.

The approach could also be applied to sifting through other types of information. Identifying word bursts within email messages sent to a company鈥檚 customer support address might help maintenance staff spot a major new problem.

Researchers at Google, the world鈥檚 most widely used internet search engine, have already shown that identifying spikes in search terms can be used to track the spread of news and rumours around the world. The algorithms that run Google鈥檚 automated news aggregation service remain secret, but it is not difficult to imagine that word bursts could, or do, have a useful role.

British savages

In a simple historical test of the technique, Kleinberg analysed all the annual State of the Union addresses given by US Presidents since 1790. He found that particular word 鈥渂ursts鈥 could indeed be linked to important events at the time the speeches were delivered.

In the years that immediately followed the American Revolution, for example, sudden bursts in the use of words such as 鈥渕ilitia鈥, 鈥淏ritish鈥 and 鈥渟avages鈥 are found.

From 1930 to 1937 a spike in the use of the word 鈥渄epression鈥 is seen. And from 1949 to 1959 鈥渁tomic鈥 is the word with the greatest 鈥渂urstiness鈥. Later in the 20th century, words such as 鈥淰ietnam鈥, 鈥淪oviet鈥, 鈥渃ommunist鈥 and 鈥淎fghanistan鈥 increase sharply in usage.

Kleinberg presents his findings on Tuesday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science鈥檚 annual meeting in Denver, Colorado.

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