The most powerful hurricane to hit Cuba for more than 50 years started to lose its strength in Monday, as it approached the Bahamas.
On Sunday, winds of up to 120 kilometres an hour battered the west and centre of Cuba. Almost 750,000 people have been evacuated from coastal areas, where there are widespread reports of flooding.
But Hurricane Michelle was not entirely unexpected, says Mark Saunders of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London. 鈥淭here were a number of predictions that there would be above average hurricane activity in this region this year,鈥� he says. 鈥淗urricane Michelle does fit in with that.鈥�
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In December 2000, Saunders and his colleagues predicted a 20 per cent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity in the June-November 2001 season. Their predictive model of hurricane activity is based on measurements of Atlantic sea temperatures and Caribbean trade winds.
鈥淎tlantic sea temperatures are warmer than average this year,鈥� says Saunders, and the vertical variability of the wind was below average. These are ideal conditions for the formation of powerful storms, he says.
However, predicting a specific hurricane is possible only about five days before the event, he adds. 鈥淵ou can only make specific forecasts once the storm starts to form. Beyond five days you can鈥檛 say that a hurricane will hit a specific area.鈥�
While still growing in strength, Hurricane Michelle struck Nicaragua and Honduras last week, killing 12 people. There have been no reports of fatalities in Cuba, but authorities expect widespread damage to crops.
Hurricane Michelle was downgraded from a class four hurricane to a class three as it crossed Cuba. It is expected to reach the Bahamas later on Monday 5 November.