Lockheed Martin may have won the largest ever military contract to develop the Joint Strike Fighter, but the losers, Boeing, could still have the last laugh.
The Pentagon鈥檚 announcement on Friday that Lockheed Martin had won the $200 billion, winner-takes-all contract was met with jubilation in President鈥檚 Bush鈥檚 home state of Texas, where the company is based.
But experts are warning that the JSF is unlikely to be delivered on time and could be soon made obsolete by Boeing鈥檚 programme to build uncrewed combat aerial vehicles (UCAV), the pilotless robotic planes of the future.
Advertisement
The JSF is a jet fighter and is supposed to become the new striking force of the US and British armed forces from 2009. Foreign sales could be worth as much as $400 billion extra.
But Paul Nisbet, defence analyst with JSA Research, in Rhode Island, warns that such contracts are notoriously optimistic about development costs and how long it will take to deliver. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see why this contract should be any different,鈥� he says.
If they fall far enough behind schedule they could face losing out to Boeing鈥檚 pilotless planes. 鈥淯CAVs will be far more capable than manned airplanes,鈥� says Nisbet. Besides being safer, UCAVs should also outperform piloted craft, while being smaller and cheaper to produce.
Three in one
The JSF will have three roles. In the Air Force it will serve as a conventional fighter plane, replacing the F-16 Fighting Falcons, while a heavier version will be used by the Navy for its large aircraft carriers.
But the most controversial role will involve it having short take-off capabilities and vertical landings. These will be used both by the US Marines and by the Royal Navy on smaller carrier craft.
But some experts have questioned the need for this third use. Giving it vertical landing will severely limit its range because of the fuel space that would have to be sacrificed to accommodate the STOVL features, says Andrew Brooks, Air Defence analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London, UK.
Boeing had completed their tests on their demonstrator well in advance of Lockheed and until recently had been tipped as the favourite to win the contract. However, both planes satisfy performance specifications and Lockheed more recently took the lead, amid reports that the look of the Boeing plane worked against it.
Flying frog
The Boeing design has been compared to a flying frog with its mouth open, and, says Nisbit, its look signifies more radical problems with its design.
A very unusual feature is that it has the engine in the center of the aircraft, to make room for the STOVL features. This means the center of gravity is much closer to the front of the aircraft than normal.
鈥淚n this respect it鈥檚 unique,鈥� says Nisbet. 鈥淭hat often works against a contractor,鈥� he says, because it involves entering uncharted territory. The Lockheed, on the other hand is a scaled-down version of the F-22. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a much more conventional design.鈥�