India鈥檚 space agency has endorsed launching a home-grown human spaceflight programme, with the first crewed mission targeted for 2014. If the government approves the plan, it will signal a change of course for the country, which has previously focused only on space missions that could directly aid development and boost the economy.
When India began its space programme about four decades ago, its creator, Vikram Sarabhai, said, 鈥淲e do not have the fantasy of competing with the economically advanced nations in the exploration of the Moon or the planets or manned spaceflight.鈥� Instead, he wanted to 鈥渉arness space for the economic and social development of India,鈥� says Brian Harvey of Dublin, Ireland, who authored a book on India鈥檚 space programme.
So it has become a world leader in remote sensing and telecommunications, allowing it to track incoming storms, monitor crops, improve urban planning and broadcast educational programming around the country.
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Recently, however, the country has shifted gears, planning astronomical missions such as Chandrayaan-1, which will lift off in 2007 or 2008 to orbit the Moon. In the last few years, there has also been talk among some government officials and astronomers about sending people into space on its own spacecraft (India has sent astronauts to space on US or Russian missions, beginning with Rakesh Sharma, who flew on a Soviet spacecraft in 1984).
鈥楤ig change鈥�
On Tuesday, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) backed such a plan, following a meeting of about 80 scientists at the ISRO鈥檚 headquarters in Bangalore. According to an ISRO statement, the researchers at the meeting were 鈥渦nanimous in suggesting that the time is appropriate for India to undertake a manned mission鈥�.
Harvey says the endorsement signals a 鈥渂ig change鈥� for India鈥檚 goals in space. 鈥淭here鈥檚 quite a big difference between floating an idea and having a big national conference on it,鈥� he told 快猫短视频. 鈥淵ou could see today as a very decisive day in the development of a manned Indian spaceflight programme.鈥�
The ISRO statement does not describe what kind of mission would be undertaken. But news reports suggest the first human mission to low-Earth orbit could occur in 2014 and a mission to the Moon might follow in 2020.
The space agency estimates the cost of the first human mission would be 100 billion Rupees ($2.2 billion) spread over eight years, or about $280 million per year. The agency currently has an annual budget of about $660 million, compared to NASA鈥檚 budget of more than $16 billion per year.
Intangible benefits
Funding such a mission will not be a problem, says John Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC, US. 鈥淚ndia has the money,鈥� he told 快猫短视频. 鈥淭he question is whether the Indian leadership has the ambition to allocate resources for that purpose.鈥�
Harvey agrees, and says versions of India鈥檚 most powerful rocket, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle, could launch such a mission. 鈥淭here is no doubt that India could do a manned space programme. It鈥檚 not a technical question 鈥� it鈥檚 a political question; a question of priorities,鈥� he says.
Despite the lack of details about specific goals of the human spaceflight programme 鈥� such as whether India, like China, would want to develop its own space station 鈥� such a programme would undoubtedly bring prestige to the country.
鈥淭he benefits of this are primarily intangible,鈥� says Logsdon. 鈥淭he argument is that it would be a measure of India鈥檚 progress and technological strength.鈥�
Currently, only three nations 鈥� the US, Russia and China 鈥� have launched their own crewed missions into space. So India would stand to become a 鈥渕ore serious partner in space exploration,鈥� Logsdon says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e on the outer ring of chairs at the table now and they鈥檇 like to be in the inner ring.鈥�
Race for prestige
Dean Cheng, senior Asia analyst at the CNA Corporation, a think tank in Alexandria, Virginia, US, says the 2020 timing of a possible lunar mission nearly coincides with China鈥檚 plan to go to the Moon by 2018.
鈥淚 think the Indians and the Chinese are engaged in a space race in a way,鈥� he told 快猫短视频. He adds that it is different from the US-Soviet race to space in the late 1950s and 1960s because the two countries are not pouring massive amounts of money into beating each other to space. 鈥淏ut I do think each of these countries is looking at its neighbours and is engaged in a race for prestige,鈥� Cheng says.
Harvey says if India goes forward with a manned mission, the effect may be greatest on Japan, which in 1970 was the first of the three Asian nations to launch a satellite into space. 鈥淛apan would appear to be falling behind, among the three countries,鈥� he says.
Japan had at one time considered building a small space shuttle for its own astronauts but did not get the funding to pursue the idea 鈥� India鈥檚 foray into human spaceflight might rekindle that interest, says Harvey. 鈥淚f India goes ahead with this, Japan will eventually put its own men and women into space,鈥� he speculates.
