PEAK temperatures may rise twice as fast as average temperatures as climate change hots up. By 2100 Australia and north-east India can expect peak temperatures of 50 掳C, while southern Europe and the US Midwest could exceed 40 掳C.
So say Andreas Sterl at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and his colleagues. They used an ensemble of climate models to calculate the peak temperatures the world can expect until 2100, given plausible future greenhouse gas emissions.
The team conclude that peak temperatures will rise twice as fast as average temperatures, resulting in increasingly frequent heatwaves. In particular, they say that by 2100, any point within 40掳 latitude of the equator will have a 10 per cent chance of peaking at over 48掳C each decade (, ).
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Besides agricultural and environmental consequences, such heat will have serious health implications, especially for elderly people and those with cardiovascular disease.
During the summer of 2003, when temperatures climbed into the forties in Europe, 35,000 people are thought to have died as a result of the heat. Sterl and his colleagues predict that such tolls will become commonplace if people fail to adapt.
鈥淎t those temperatures you just don鈥檛 go outside and you have to have air conditioning. Farmers might have to start harvesting their crops at night,鈥� says Tom Dowling of the Stockholm Environment Institute in Sweden.
