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Californian quake before 2037 almost inevitable

The first state-wide prediction of earthquakes in California also shows those living in the south are more vulnerable to a major rumble than the north
The aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
The aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
(Image: H D Chadwick, US Government War Department/Wikimedia Commons)

BAD news for Californians. The US Geological Survey has released its first ever earthquake forecast for the whole state, and the odds don’t look good.

“The odds don’t look good, especially for those living in southern Californiaâ€

The , commissioned by insurance conglomerate the California Earthquake Authority, combined empirical evidence on prior earthquakes with the physical data from various fault lines in the region and precise satellite information about movements of the Earth’s surface.

According to the study, there is a 99.7 per cent chance of a quake of magnitude 6.7 or greater hitting California by 2037. Those in Los Angeles have a 67 per cent chance of such a quake in that time and the people of San Francisco have a 63 per cent chance.

Disturbingly for southern Californians, it seems they are more vulnerable to a catastrophic quake than those living in the north – with a 37 per cent chance of a quake greater than magnitude 7.5 before 2037, which is more than twice the probability for the north.