快猫短视频

NASSIM TALEB is a trader and a specialist in uncertainty. His central point 鈥� that our lives are defined by improbable events that we could never predict 鈥� should make a lot of people uncomfortable, not least those whose stock in trade is imagining they are good at predicting things (most politicians and economists). A glance at history should tell us that the events that really mattered 鈥� stock market crashes, 9/11, the development of the internet 鈥� came from nowhere: they were 鈥渂lack swans鈥� that no amount of white swans could have prepared us for. Taleb makes a convincing case. The take-home message? Worry more about crossing the road than whether to buy terrorism insurance.