IN AMERICAN politics, significant changes are on the horizon. With midterm elections approaching on 7 November, politicians at both federal and state level find themselves facing an especially volatile electorate. The result could have substantial implications for American science.
Though science is by no means a dominant factor in the election, with all 435 congressional districts, one-third of Senate seats and more than half of state governorships in play there are numerous races where science-related issues could influence the outcome. With the outgoing Congress split nearly evenly down party lines, such contests also have the potential to shift the balance of powers.
鈥淪cience issues have certainly been in the news this year, and the renewed interest is welcome,鈥� says Representative Bart Gordon of Tennessee, ranking Democratic on the House Science Committee. Those issues are unlikely, on their own, to determine the make-up of the next Congress, he says, 鈥渂ut they will certainly be affected should Democrats win.鈥�
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All signs indicate that precisely such an outcome is in the offing. As 快猫短视频 went to press, polls were strongly favouring the transfer of majority rule in the House of Representatives from the Republican party, which has held sway for a dozen years, to the Democrats. Such a transfer would mean that powerful House committees that oversee national laboratories, funding bodies, and science-related agencies such as NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as regulating the energy, medical and high-tech sectors of the US economy, would fall to the control of Democratic politicians.
鈥淧owerful committees that oversee national labs, funding bodies and agencies would fall to the control of the Democrats鈥�
鈥淚t looks like a big turnover in the House,鈥� says John Zogby, president of independent polling firm Zogby International. 鈥淭he Democrats need 16 seats. They could get as many as 25 or 30, but there is still time to go.鈥� Even more significant, though far less likely, would be a parallel Republican defeat in the Senate. While George W. Bush鈥檚 White House would continue to execute a conservative agenda, such a scenario would see the president having to negotiate with a Democrat-controlled Congress for the rest of his term. This would influence most facets of scientific activity within the federal government.
Even without a transfer of power at the federal level, changes are guaranteed at the state level. Here, Democratic candidates are looking for leverage with voters, and Republicans are breaking with their federal counterparts with increasing frequency, in response to public opinion. More robust support for stem cell research and tougher rules on carbon emissions are among the likely outcomes of this year鈥檚 gubernatorial elections.
ENVIRONMENT
Environmental issues will shape the outcome of this year鈥檚 congressional elections like never before.
Groups such as the Sierra Club, the Defenders of Wildlife and the League of Conservation Voters are targeting vulnerable Republicans in an effort to stop further corrosion of environmental protection. No candidate is fixed more squarely in these groups鈥� sights than the Defenders鈥� 2006 鈥渨ildlife villain鈥� Richard Pombo, California Republican and chair of the House Resources Committee.
While environmental protection has for the past quarter-century been a partisan issue, with Democrats voting for and Republicans voting against, some moderate Republicans are bucking the trend, being strong supporters of green initiatives. 鈥淭he brown is starting to fall away and some flecks of green are starting to show,鈥� said Jim DiPeso, policy director for the small but influential Republicans for Environmental Protection.
If the Democrats acquire a majority in the House, one of the greenest representatives on Capitol Hill, Nancy Pelosi will take over as Speaker. Pelosi, who received a 100 per cent approval rating in 2006 by the non-partisan League of Conservation Voters, has a strong record on issues such as clean air and water, conserving public lands, and protecting endangered species.
STEM CELLS
For years, US politicians who back research on embryonic stem cells (ESCs) have run in fear of the self-styled 鈥減ro-life鈥� lobby, especially in the conservative Midwest. But this could be a watershed year, claims Michael Werner, a consultant who advises the Biotechnology Industry Organization in Washington DC. 鈥淎dvocates of embryonic stem cell research are being very outspoken,鈥� he says.
At the national level, there is now a solid public majority in favour of ESC research. Significantly, when the Senate voted in July for legislation that would have expanded federal funding for research on human ESCs, some senators who oppose abortion backed the law 鈥� which was defeated by the only veto yet exercised by George W. Bush. 鈥淭his demonstrated that you could be pro-life and also pro-research,鈥� says Werner.
Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the new Congress will have the two-thirds majority in both houses necessary to override Bush鈥檚 veto, so until 2009, when the White House gains a new resident, action will be at the state level. Liberal-leaning states on the coasts, led by California, have already thrown their weight behind ESC research. Now voters in the Midwest are being asked by research advocates to defeat attempts to criminalise the derivation of stem cells from cloned human embryos.
EVOLUTION
鈥淭his time the elections are exciting. I think things are going our way,鈥� says Nick Matzke of the National Center for Science Education in Berkeley, California. 鈥淎 backlash against anti-science policies鈥� is what he hopes for. In Kansas, the make-up of the state school board continues to concern scientists, though those who oppose teaching evolution are unlikely to gain control. In Ohio, five of 19 state board of education members are up for re-election, and all face at least one candidate hostile to evolution. If the challengers win, the board will find it harder to vote down lesson plans requiring students to 鈥渃ritically analyse鈥� evolution, as it did this month. Whoever is elected as governor will be able to appoint four state education board members.
GLOBAL WARMING
California鈥檚 plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions to 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050 confirmed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger鈥檚 position as the nation鈥檚 trailblazer on climate change. Arizona, New Mexico and Oregon have followed with equally ambitious plans, while north-east states have more modest legislation. In all, 30 states have climate plans, of which 12 have solid emissions targets. Even in the remaining 20, popular sentiment is growing in favour of state action to fight global warming. Incumbent governors are leaving office in 10 states, including Florida, opening the way for first-term executives to make their mark with new climate policies.
ENERGY
鈥淓nergy is on the minds of voters all across the country, and therefore it is on the minds of the politicians. They鈥檙e all talking about it,鈥� says Tony Massaro, political director of the non-partisan League of Conservation Voters.
What they are saying varies widely, however. Many Republican candidates want to allow more oil drilling within the Alaska Wildlife Refuge and in sensitive offshore areas, and boost development of fossil fuel and nuclear technologies. Democrats generally support initiatives to promote energy efficiency, such as stricter fuel economy standards for cars, and on alternative energy sources, including increased development and use of wind and solar energy and alternative fuels.
If the Democrats win a majority in the House, the Senate or both, there could be dramatic changes in national energy policy, including a reversal of many measures in last year鈥檚 energy bill geared toward subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power. Measures scrapped by the Bush administration, such as national standards for energy efficiency of appliances, may be renewed.
In addition there are two high-profile state initiatives on energy up for ballot. California will vote on a proposal to tax oil firms, while an initiative in Washington will promote the use of sustainable energy by utility companies.
