快猫短视频

EVERY nation needs heroes. And China got two new ones in Fei Junlong and Nie Haisheng when their Shenzhou VI capsule parachuted onto the grasslands of Inner Mongolia in the early hours of 17 October. Their five-day mission has become a bold statement of national pride, technological capability and intent to conquer space. And with a technologically savvy Japan and an emerging India both expanding their activities in space, there is much talk of a new space race in Asia.

But experts contacted by 快猫短视频 see it differently. While the years ahead will see Asia becoming a force to be reckoned with in space, the efforts of the three main players are driven by different aims. If there is a race, the runners are heading off in different directions. Japan鈥檚 programme is tied into international partnerships, and is still recovering from budget squeezes and a spate of embarrassing technological failures. India, meanwhile, is pursuing its own path, stressing applications in remote sensing and telecommunications designed to aid development and to boost its fast-growing economy (see 鈥淣o-nonsense eyes in the sky鈥�).

Only China, experts say, has the combination of political will and technological might to support a programme that includes a prolonged human presence in space. If there is rivalry in the future, it will be with the US, as China vies to become a bona fide superpower. 鈥淐hina is the real long-term runner and leader of the pack,鈥� says Brian Harvey, a space expert based in Dublin, Ireland, who has written widely on the Chinese, Japanese and Indian space programmes.

China has got to this stage by pursuing its space interests on a broad front. It has healthy initiatives in meteorology, other remote-sensing applications, and in telecommunications. It also operates a satellite navigation system known as Beidou, and is a partner in Europe鈥檚 Galileo project, designed to rival the American GPS satellites. And while most rocket programmes have suffered high-profile failures in recent years, the Chinese have since 1996 quietly accumulated an unbroken series of successful launches.

But it鈥檚 the vigorous promotion of human space flight that really separates China from other aspiring Asian space powers. Take the Shenzhou spacecraft. Often dismissed as a copy of the Russian Soyuz, the Shenzhou is in fact a more advanced craft. It is 13 per cent larger by volume, carries extra solar panels and generates more power than the Soyuz. And the Shenzhou can leave behind its orbital module, to function as a science lab in space.

Shenzhou鈥檚 capabilities augur a permanent Chinese presence in space. Shenzhou VII, expected to launch about a year from now, will feature the first Chinese space walk 鈥� an essential skill for bolting together modules in orbit. Shenzhou VIII is expected to leave behind a orbiting module that its successors will use to practise docking manoeuvres.

Soon afterwards, Harvey predicts that China will launch a modest space lab 鈥� a 鈥渂aby-Mir鈥� 鈥� weighing about 8 tonnes and capable of housing a crew of three for months. And in 2009, China is expected to fire the first of its heavy-lifting Long March 5 rockets, capable of launching 20 tonnes into low Earth orbit. 鈥淭hat could put up a Mir-class space station,鈥� says Harvey, which might be ready for launch by 2010.

Behind all this is the most modern infrastructure of any space-faring nation, Harvey says. This includes the Shenzhou鈥檚 Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in north-west China, plus additional launch facilities at Xiching and Taiyuan. Mission controllers can maintain excellent links with their craft: China has built a state-of-the-art ground station in Namibia, and operates four ships bristling with telemetry equipment. 鈥淚t鈥檚 all brand new,鈥� says Harvey.

China鈥檚 space programme is often portrayed as being designed to impress the world. But its value in promoting a domestic feel-good factor should not be underestimated. Even China鈥檚 authoritarian rulers have to worry about keeping the country鈥檚 billion-strong population reasonably happy. 鈥淛ust because there aren鈥檛 elections, doesn鈥檛 mean that there are no means for the population to express its displeasure,鈥� says Dean Cheng, an expert on China鈥檚 space programme at the CNA Corporation, a think-tank in Alexandria, Virginia. China鈥檚 uneven economic development is storing up trouble for the government in Beijing. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of unrest out there among the have-nots,鈥� he says. A successful space programme could paper over the cracks for a while.

For Japan, long accustomed to being Asia鈥檚 technological leader, China鈥檚 rapid advance is unsettling. 鈥淐hina and Japan are inevitably going to compete for leadership in the Asia-Pacific region, and space capabilities are part of that,鈥� says John Logsdon, head of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington DC.

Public statements from Japan鈥檚 space agency, JAXA, suggest that Tokyo is concerned. The agency鈥檚 20-year vision, unveiled earlier this year, contains telling and repeated references to China, specifically to China鈥檚 鈥渇irst human space flight鈥� and its ambitions for reaching the moon.

The JAXA plans include a manned space shuttle and a moonbase. But close examination of the fine print reveals little evidence that Japan really has the stomach for a space race with China. Key decisions on whether to aggressively pursue human space flight still lie a decade away, and would require a vastly bigger budget than allowed by the single-figure annual percentage increases being requested by JAXA.

In any case, JAXA has its hands full restoring dented pride after a series of high-profile failures. In 2003 alone, the agency lost the Mars probe Nozumi, the Earth observation satellite Midori-II, and was forced to destroy an advanced H-IIA rocket and its payload of two satellites in mid-flight, after a malfunction. The H-IIA was grounded until February this year as JAXA struggled to fix the problem on a tight budget. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e in recovery mode,鈥� Logsdon says.

鈥淭he strongest reactions to China鈥檚 growing confidence in space come not from its Asian rivals but from Washington鈥�

Surprisingly, the strongest reactions to China鈥檚 growing confidence in space come not from its Asian neighbours but from Washington. Even though China still lags a long way behind the formidable capacities of NASA and the US military, American politicians are determined not to give the Chinese a helping hand. China鈥檚 offer to participate in the International Space Station was flatly rebuffed by the US. And since the late 1990s, any operator wishing to have their satellite launched by a Chinese rocket has required explicit approval from the US government if the satellite contains any US components. This has effectively shut down China鈥檚 attempts to offer commercial launch services.

Also, US concerns about a military threat from China鈥檚 space activities reflect what observers say is an unwarranted degree of paranoia. For instance, the US Defense Intelligence Agency鈥檚 2003 and 2004 reports on China鈥檚 military power referred to the development of a 鈥減arasitic microsatellite鈥� that could lock onto rival military satellites and disrupt or destroy them on command. When this claim was investigated by the Union of Concerned 快猫短视频s in Washington DC, it was traced to a privately run Chinese website of dubious repute. 鈥淔ew people in the US intelligence community speak Chinese,鈥� observes Jeffrey Lewis of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland. 鈥淎nd that opens space for rumour and innuendo.鈥�

Rumour and innuendo aside, with this latest flight China has made its intentions clear 鈥� definitely to Asia, and also to the rest of the world. Watch this space programme.