TWENTY years on, UN scientists are at last beginning to understand the aftermath of the world鈥檚 worst-ever nuclear accident, at Chernobyl in Ukraine. After-effects of the huge cloud of radiation that leaked from the broken reactor will eventually kill 4000 people, they say.
Radiation has contaminated more than 200,000 square kilometres of land. And it has triggered widespread mental health problems among the people of the worst-hit countries.
These are the conclusions of the most authoritative study to date of the effects of the explosions that ripped apart Chernobyl reactor number 4 on 26 April 1986. It was compiled by the Chernobyl Forum, which involves more than 100 scientists, eight UN agencies and the governments of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
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A massive 14 billion billion becquerels of radioactivity escaped from the reactor over the 10 days it burned. Previous estimates of the death toll this would cause have varied from under 50 people, all among those who worked on cleaning the site, to hundreds of thousands across Europe.
The UN study estimates that the number who will die from long-term cancers caused by the radiation will be 3940. The deaths will be among almost 600,000 people most contaminated by the accident: 200,000 clean-up workers, the 116,000 evacuated from around the plant and the 270,000 residents of the most contaminated areas.
Some 50 emergency relief workers have already died from acute radiation poisoning or other linked causes. Nine of the 4000 children who have contracted thyroid cancer since the disaster have also died, though virtually all the rest are expected to survive. Because of the difficulty of attributing specific cancers to radiation over decades, the precise number of deaths is 鈥渦nlikely ever to be known鈥�, the study says.
Alongside radiation, it suggests that mental illness has been the biggest public health problem caused by the accident. Families forcibly relocated were deeply traumatised, and residents of contaminated areas have succumbed to a 鈥減aralysing fatalism鈥�, it says.
According to Michael Repacholi, radiation manager for the World Health Organization (WHO) a 鈥渉igh proportion鈥� of the people most contaminated have suffered from stress. Sometimes this had led to reckless behaviour, such as eating highly contaminated food, overindulgence in alcohol and tobacco and 鈥渦nprotected promiscuous sexual activity鈥�.
Repacholi nevertheless insists that the study鈥檚 overall health message was 鈥渞eassuring鈥�. Only 3 per cent of those contaminated by Chernobyl would die from cancer as a result of the accident, on top of the 25 per cent who would be expected to die from cancer anyway. 鈥淢ost people will be surprised that there are so few deaths,鈥� he says.
His remarks, however, were criticised as 鈥渜uite inappropriate鈥� by a former WHO radiation scientist, Keith Baverstock. The lives of people living in contaminated areas have been 鈥減ermanently blighted鈥�, he says. 鈥淚 doubt they find that reassuring.鈥�
Baverstock is concerned that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose remit is to promote nuclear power, may have had too great an influence on the study. The study鈥檚 assessment of radiation risks should be regarded with scepticism, he argues.
But this is disputed by Murdoch Baxter, a former IAEA radiation scientist. 鈥淐hernobyl unfortunately set back the development of nuclear power by decades,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his authoritative study will help put its real impact on people and the environment into perspective.鈥�
鈥淎longside radiation, mental illness has been the biggest public health problem鈥�
The study also highlights some of Chernobyl鈥檚 lingering problems. There are no plans for disposing of the large amounts of radioactive waste dumped in landfill sites around the 鈥渟arcophagus鈥� built over the damaged reactor in 1986, while the structure itself, due to be replaced in the next few years, is at risk of collapsing and kicking up radioactive dust into the air.
