Risk is all in the mind. It is a word that refers to a future that exists only in the imagination. Contrary to the insistence, routinely found in discussions of the subject, on a distinction between 鈥渙bjective鈥� risk and 鈥減erceived鈥� risk, all risk is subjective.
To take a risk is to do something that has a possibility of an adverse outcome. Why should anyone want to do such a thing? Because, as well as possible adverse effects, risks also bring rewards.
Of course, everything we do carries some unknown probability of an accident 鈥� an unintended, undesired outcome. In the past such outcomes were commonly characterised as acts of God, who moves in mysterious ways, or, in a secular age, as bad luck. With the help of a good lawyer, however, it is increasingly possible to transform almost any stroke of bad luck into culpable negligence. We now live in a risk-blame-litigation-compensation culture, where the level of mitigation against the downsides of risky behaviour means the possible rewards now need to be much bigger.
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That is because the fear of being held liable for some unintended adverse outcome is almost always linked to litigation, or the threat of it. This threat has been amplified by the advent of the no-win, no-fee lawyer. Insurers are also implicated: they routinely insist on settlement out of court of claims their customers want to defend.
The increased frequency and size of compensation awards are important drivers of the cultural shift. The sums paid out for everything from tripping over paving stones to clinical negligence have rocketed; the clearest sign of this is in the parallel rocketing of insurance premiums.
Underpinning the increases in litigation and compensation is the growth of the blame culture. Why are we collectively so much more inclined to blame than we used to be? If my good friend and neighbour inadvertently harms me, my first instinct is not to sue him 鈥� even if the television at the foot of my hospital bed is blaring out incitements to do so. But if I have been harmed by a complete stranger, especially one with deep pockets, might I be tempted?
We imagine the future, arriving at the subjective probabilities of both positive and negative outcomes, by using instinct, intuition and our experience of circumstances that appear similar to those that we have encountered before. But we are now imagining the future differently. God and bad luck have been banished. Large armies are employed in the production of risk assessments, whose purpose is the identification and avoidance of all conceivable sources of misfortune.
But whatever the risk assessors might want from the world, the future remains uncertain. To the extent that these assessments influence behaviour, they discourage the pursuit of the rewards of risk 鈥� whether from school trips or trips to the moon.
鈥�Low rollers
Accidents were once thought of as acts of God, or, in a secular age, bad luck. Now, with a good lawyer, almost anything can be turned into culpable negligence鈥�
