Do you know anyone who has consulted a professional medium, astrologer or fortune teller? Or perhaps you have yourself? One of the most remarkable features of such encounters is the uncanny insight that many psychics seem to have about their customers.
For believers, the clairvoyants鈥� apparent omniscience is no mystery: their source of information is their spirit guide, tarot cards or crystal ball. But sceptics believe the psychic is deceiving their sitter in an elaborate con. So how does it work?
In fact there are myriad psychological techniques that allow someone to appear as if they know a great deal about you. Collectively known as cold reading, these tools are basic yet can be startlingly effective, particularly when the customer is willing to be convinced.
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One important ruse is to make general statements that apply to most people, yet can seem uniquely relevant to the sitter. This is known as the personal validation fallacy.
Imagine, for example, reading the following description of yourself in a horoscope: 鈥淒isciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety, and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions.鈥� This is from a generic personality sketch drawn up by psychologist Bertram Forer back in the 1940s. When unwitting subjects are asked to rate it on a scale of 0 (very poor fit) to 5 (excellent), the average score is 4.2.
The phenomenon doesn鈥檛 just apply to personality sketches. People who consult clairvoyants tend to do so for broadly similar reasons, so generic hints at health, work or relationship worries usually have good hit rates. And statements such as 鈥淚 see ill-health in your family,鈥� will often be recounted to friends later as: 鈥淪he knew all about dad鈥檚 heart attack.鈥�
Even specific pronouncements can apply to many people. For example, a survey of 6000 people showed that one third agreed with the statement: 鈥淚 have a scar on my left knee,鈥� and over a quarter with: 鈥淪omeone in my family is called Jack.鈥� As long as the psychic makes numerous guesses, the odds are that a few will hit the mark. And thanks to our selective memories, we tend to remember the hits and forget the misses.
Psychics are usually skilled at reading body language so they know when they are onto something and should elaborate. Many sitters will help by verbally acknowledging a correct guess 鈥� and may even provide extra details. This information can be fed back, perhaps with a twist, later in the reading when the customer has forgotten who first brought it up.
On top of these and other cold reading techniques, some psychics are not above cheating by hot reading 鈥� rifling through coat pockets out of sight or even consulting local newspaper archives about their sitter. And at stage shows, they may choose volunteers with whom they have previously corresponded.
Sceptics have shown that techniques such as these are all that it takes to put on convincing demonstrations of clairvoyance. This does not prove that all professional psychics rely on them, but it is telling that their supposedly paranormal powers melt away under conditions that rule out all cold or hot reading techniques.
Perhaps the most rigorous study in terms of excluding the possibility of cheating was published earlier this year (British Journal of Psychiatry, vol 96, p 165). The research was carried out on mediums, who supposedly receive information about their customers from spirits.
Richard Wiseman, a psychologist at the University of Hertfordshire, UK, tested five mediums, who each gave readings for five sitters. In each case, the mediums鈥� statements were recorded while the sitter was located in a different room, to exclude all feedback. The sitters were given transcripts of all 25 readings and asked to rate them for accuracy, not knowing which five referred to themselves. The mediums were a flop 鈥� no reading for any sitter was rated as significantly more accurate than the control readings.
Perhaps it is not only the customers of such psychics who are being deceived. Some clairvoyants seem to genuinely believe in their abilities, using cold reading techniques without even realising it. It seems there is a fair amount of self-deception going on too.
