A RECENT editorial and news piece in this magazine offered stark warnings about avian flu virus: 鈥淪ooner or later H5N1 or one of its cousins will find a way to spread easily between humans. If most of us are vaccinated, it will not get far. It is time for some urgent lateral thinking鈥� (2 October 2004, p 5). I showed the pieces to Melanie Johnson, the minister for communicable diseases.
She said that the government has considered the present needs for an H5N1 vaccine in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency, the National Institute for Biological Standards and others. A suitable H5N1 strain exists from which a vaccine can be developed and appropriate research is in hand.
The government is keeping under close review the risks posed to the UK population from outbreaks of H5N1 in Asia. During 2004, south-east Asia experienced prolonged outbreaks of avian flu in poultry. This is known to have resulted in 42 people becoming infected, 30 of whom subsequently died. Person-to-person transmission of the disease has been reported, but the evidence is inconclusive. Generally, the transmission of H5N1 to people is unusual, and where it occurs the virus is not transmitted further, Johnson said.
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She confesses that her chief concern is the possibility of H5N1 mutating into a new strain of influenza virus. The chance of this happening would be increased if a person were simultaneously infected with H5N1 and with a strain of human influenza virus. In such a situation there is the potential for a new, more virulent strain to emerge, capable of rapid and effective human-to-human transmission, which could set off a pandemic. A new vaccine would then be essential. There is no evidence to say that developing an H5N1 vaccine would protect against any new strain that might emerge, she said.
I gather that the Department of Health is keeping a very close eye on the situation.
CONFINED to barracks for medical reasons recently, I have done things I would not normally have had the time to do were I bucketing to-and-fro between Edinburgh and Westminster. I browsed through a valuable report and evidence publication from the House of Lords, The EU and Climate Change (HL Papers 179, I and II). Well done to all involved.
One of many interesting exchanges was between Lord Carter and Saleemul Huq, director of the International Institute for Environment and Development鈥檚 climate change programme. Carter wanted to know if climate change involving more rain would enable developing countries to increase their food production.
Huq replied that things would probably get worse rather than better. It was likely that weather-related hazards with which we are familiar would become more frequent and worse. The Sahel in Africa, for example, would get more droughts and Bangladesh more floods. We need more preparation for these kinds of hazards.
I suggest all public libraries should have copies of this important report and evidence.
