COULD you be sued for your contribution to climate change? Countries and individual companies face that possibility now that there鈥檚 a way to quantify how global warming increases the risks of freak weather.
Myles Allen from the University of Oxford and colleagues modelled the relative frequency of heatwaves in today鈥檚 greenhouse world compared with their frequency in an uncontaminated environment. While they say it is impossible to blame any individual heatwave on global warming, their simulations suggest that human activity has at least doubled, and more likely quadrupled, the risk of a severe heatwave like the one that killed thousands in Europe in 2003 (Nature, vol 432, p 610).
The results could give relatives of the victims enough grounds to sue the emitters of greenhouse gases for compensation. 鈥淭he fraction of risk due to human events is starting to reach the level where a court might find the emitters responsible,鈥� says Allen. But courts have still to decide whether such evidence would be admissible.
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