THREE hurricanes in quick succession are enough to grab anyone鈥檚 attention. With the Caribbean reeling from just such a triple whammy, the south-eastern US is wondering what on earth caused so many to sweep through in less than two months. Among the first suspects, at least from non-scientists, is 鈥済lobal warming鈥�.
Well, it might be鈥r it might not. There were several years during the 20th century when three hurricanes hit the region in a single season. It could just be normal variation. Global climate models can鈥檛 predict with much certainty, and that has been their Achilles鈥� heel when it comes to influencing policy, given that the Bush administration seems to want certainty in the absolute before conceding anything to the climate Cassandras. Until now, that is.
In late August the climate experts in the Department of Commerce issued a remarkable study on climate. Remarkable because it stated that emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of the warming we have experienced over the past 50-odd years.
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Can鈥檛 be sure, the White House said, so let鈥檚 not get hasty and damage the economy. Well, now the administration seems to be inching toward believer status.
That might be good news for the majority of scientists who agree that human activity is the prime warmer right now. But since the report came out, no one from the Bush administration has suggested doing anything new to help. Except, of course, to study it some more.
WHEN he was director of the National Institutes of Health during the Clinton administration, Harold Varmus succeeded in restoring the scientific lustre of its research campus in Bethesda. But in doing so he also sowed the seeds of a problem that may soon result in an exodus of the agency鈥檚 top talent.
The NIH is really two separate agencies. The extramural programme, which gives out the bulk of the agency鈥檚 money to researchers, and the intramural programme, which employs scientists to work in research labs owned by the federal government. The nice thing about being an intramural scientist is that you are guaranteed research funding; you don鈥檛 have to compete for grants.
As a Nobel prizewinner, Varmus was able to wow some top scientists and woo others into government service, in part by promising them they would be able to continue to do lucrative consulting work for industry. But now Congress has begun shining a spotlight on some of these agreements, and legislators don鈥檛 like what they see. In some cases scientists have been earning more than cabinet secretaries. Not good, say the legislators. We want changes, they say.
And the changes are coming. Current NIH director Elias Zerhouni has begun a crackdown on scientists鈥� outside activities. And since top scientists are always in demand and no one likes to take a major pay cut, and since their great champion Varmus has long since decamped, there may soon be quite a few government vacancies to fill.
