LAST week鈥檚 successful mission instantly grants China some credibility as a superpower: not only is it a source of national pride, it implies military prowess and looks set to boost the country鈥檚 economy.
The Chinese government expects its manned space programme to enhance the reputation of China鈥檚 high-tech exports, giving it greater diplomatic and commercial power. It also sees space technology as critical to achieving technological parity with western nations and Japan. Specifically, it hopes the manned space programme will raise standards in computing, materials science, manufacturing and electronics.
China is not open about its spending, but analysts estimate that it has spent $2.2 billion so far on its space programme. That鈥檚 a lot for a country ranked 96th in last year鈥檚 UN Development Index and in receipt of around $1.8 billion in foreign aid each year. But it indicates just how seriously China takes its space efforts.
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But many suspect that China鈥檚 true intention may be to boost its military prowess. Its space and military programmes are certainly very tightly interwoven. Many of the technologies used for space exploration are similar to those necessary to accurately target a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead. China鈥檚 Chang Zheng-1 space launch vehicle is derived from the military DF-4 ballistic missile. Likewise, versions of the DF-5 ballistic missile have been used to launch unmanned satellites as well as the Shenzhou spacecraft.
According to Sibing He, an expert on China鈥檚 space programme at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies in Guangzhou, the Shenzhou programme has already carried equipment for military surveillance. Shenzhou-4 had devices for intercepting radar and telecommunications signals, and Shenzhou-5 carried a camera that can resolve features on the ground as small as 1.6 metres across.
Although the Chinese have been campaigning for a UN treaty banning weapons from space, they have been developing anti-satellite technology for the past 10 years, according to Mark Stokes at the US Department of Defense. China already has a high-powered laser to dazzle sensors on foreign satellites and a space-tracking network to monitor its own and enemy satellites.
It is less obvious what the Chinese military hopes to gain from putting humans into space. It could achieve most of its military goals through the country鈥檚 unmanned space programme, which already includes satellites for telecommunications, reconnaissance, weather monitoring and navigation. 鈥淲ith Shenzhou, the military side is of fairly limited utility compared to the rest of the satellites,鈥� says Dean Cheng, a policy analyst with the CNA Corporation in Alexandria, Virginia. 鈥淎nd a manned programme is remarkably fragile, with the potential for tragedy.鈥�
Larry Wortzel of the Heritage Foundation, a think tank based in Washington DC, agrees. He believes that China鈥檚 plans for manned space flight could divert money from other military programmes. 鈥淐hina has so many programmes that could have a much greater influence on the US and other countries in a shorter time. In the near term, China鈥檚 space programme makes the US, Japan and Taiwan safer.鈥�
At the very least it seems the manned programme is about international prestige. 鈥淐hina鈥檚 space capability says to the world, 鈥榃e are now an advanced nation,'鈥� says Cheng.