AN ONGOING polio epidemic in northern India has derailed the World Health Organization鈥檚 dreams of declaring the world free of polio by 2005.
So far this year, India has recorded 546 cases of wild polio virus, of which 446 were in Uttar Pradesh. That鈥檚 over two-thirds of all polio cases worldwide. And for every case of wild polio, up to 400 other children may be infected. They don鈥檛 develop symptoms, but can spread the virus.
Experts now believe that there could be up to 1000 cases of polio by the end of a year in which they hoped to have none. Experts believe there will be more cases in India next year, too.
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Yet for any region to be declared polio free, it must have no cases of the disease for three years. That means the WHO鈥檚 plan to rid the world of polio, originally set for 2000, is set to slip again.
That鈥檚 not the only problem. Some recent outbreaks of polio have been caused by mutated versions of the vaccine strains, raising questions about how vaccination can ever end (快猫短视频, 6 February 2000, p 20).
The WHO鈥檚 regional advisor for polio, Arun Thapa, admits that the programme has failed to reach all children. Part of the problem is the atmosphere of distrust. Many in the Muslim population, which is most affected, believe that polio vaccine will turn their male offspring impotent or that it is laced with HIV. The authorities are now concentrating on improving routine immunisations of newborns and interpersonal communication in the pockets of resistance.