DUTCH politics have changed dramatically since the right-wing landslide in May’s general election. As old policies go out of the window, new plans are hatched. Most are a purely domestic matter, but there is one that should concern us all. The new government is planning to permit large-scale gas production in one of Europe’s biggest nature reserves, the Wadden Sea.
Dutch environmentalists are fiercely opposed, saying drilling would destroy a unique and globally important ecosystem. Supporters say their fears are overblown and that the environment won’t suffer. But is it really possible to drill for gas in a nature conservation area without disrupting it?
The Wadden Sea is a shallow coastal sea hemmed in by a chain of islands that shelter it from the North Sea. Stretching from the north coast of the Netherlands to southern Denmark, the sea is a vast and dynamic landscape of tidal channels and mudflats, shifting sandbanks, salt marshes, wet meadows and dunes.
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It is an area of extraordinary beauty and a safe haven for numerous protected animals and plants, including the endangered Kentish plover, little tern and black-tailed godwit. North Sea fish such as herring, sole and plaice use the Wadden as a feeding ground, and it is well known for its seal colonies. But perhaps its most important ecological function is as a bird sanctuary: around 50 species of bird depend on it. Every year, millions of migrating birds visit the sea to forage on the rich tidal flats, and millions more overwinter there.
In 1978, recognising the international importance of the area, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark signed an agreement to preserve the sea. In 1984, the international Ramsar Convention on Wetlands recognised the Wadden Sea as an area of global importance, and in 2005 the three countries bordering the sea will propose it as a World Heritage Site. It is also protected under the European Union’s Bird and Habitat Directives. In short, anything happening in the Wadden Sea is an international affair.
However, the sea is not treasured only for its ecological riches. Under the seabed is about 40 billion cubic metres of natural gas – enough to supply the Netherlands’ four biggest cities for around 18 years.
Natural gas has played an important role in the Dutch economy, since the discovery of the huge Groningen gas field in the 1950s, generating substantial export earnings and providing power and heat. In the 1970s, further exploration led to significant new finds in the North Sea, but for a long time the industry has been eyeing the Wadden Sea, too.
When the environment was less of an issue in the 1960s, a group of oil companies obtained permanent production rights on large parts of the Wadden Sea. But successive Dutch governments have resisted allowing those production rights to be fully exercised. Up to now there are only two gas platforms in the Wadden sea: TotalFinaElf’s Zuidwal 1, about 17 kilometres west of Harlingen, which extracts gas from the Zuidwal field and is the Wadden’s only far-offshore installation; and a platform just off the island of Ameland which NAM uses to tap the Ameland field (see Map).
In 1984, in response to the environmental stresses involved in bringing these fields into production, the government and the oil companies agreed a 10-year moratorium on new exploration in the Wadden Sea. When the moratorium expired in 1994, the government allowed exploration to resume, and the Dutch oil company NAM discovered three new gas fields. In 1999 and 2002 it applied to the government to bring these fields into production. But both times the left-leaning coalition government said no.
The new government looks certain to reverse this policy of restraint. Two of the coalition partners, the Christian Democrats and the Liberal People’s Party, are long-standing supporters of gas extraction. In previous coalitions they have been restrained by left-wing partners. But the new government has no such counterweight: the third coalition partner is the new right-wing party Pim Fortuyn’s List.
The cabinet’s action plan states that gas production from the Wadden Sea can be considered. The exact wording is ambiguous and is covered by numerous caveats, but the essence is that the new government favours drilling.
Its rationale is that the gas is too important, both strategically and economically, to leave in the ground. The Netherlands’ largest reserve of natural gas is the huge inland field at Groningen. In 1974, the government decided this should be saved for a rainy day and so instigated the “small field” policy, encouraging exploration and production from smaller fields such as those in the North Sea. Wadden Sea gas has always been a minor player in this policy, but the pressure is now on to increase its role.
Rien Herber, exploration manager at NAM, explains: “We cannot afford to bypass the gas under the Wadden Sea. We need to produce from smaller fields to keep our strategic reserves intact. If we make exclusive use of the Groningen field it will be empty a few decades from now. It only takes thinking of the 11th of September to understand why keeping up our national hydrocarbon reserves is so important.”
The new government has another incentive: money. Not only would the treasury gain tax revenues from NAM, the government itself holds permanent production rights on part of the Wadden Sea through a state-owned company, Energie Beheer Nederland, and so would benefit directly. Dutch gas is also an important export earner. Half of the EU’s gas reserves are under Dutch soil, a third of which is in the small fields.
But what about the environment? The oil companies say they can extract the gas without damage. Sceptics are not so sure. Pollution will always be a risk, they say. But the biggest fear is subsidence.
Ground subsidence is an unavoidable consequence of gas extraction. Removing the gas lowers the pressure in the pores of the gas-bearing rock, compacting it. On the surface, subsidence shows up as a saucer-shaped depression. Its seriousness varies depending on the depth of the gas reservoir, the type of rock, thickness of the layers and the shape and size of the field. In general a small, deep field will cause less severe subsidence than a big, shallow one.
The rate and extent of subsidence that can be expected following gas extraction from the Wadden Sea are a major bone of contention. Environmentalists claim that subsidence will cause irreparable damage by lowering the seabed and drowning the nutrient-rich tidal mudflats that are such a vital element of the ecosystem. And if you factor in the potential impact of sea level rise following climate change, the entire Wadden Sea might disappear beneath the waves.
Too big a risk
Robert Terpstra from the conservation group Waddenvereniging, based in Harlingen, says that the subsidence risk is too great to allow the extraction of natural gas from the Wadden Sea. “Nobody is sure that it won’t lose its character if production goes ahead,” he says.
Ruud van Leeuwen of Greenpeace agrees. “No one can be sure of the ultimate effect of subsidence,” he says. “Extreme caution is required to protect this area. We urge the government to encourage the search for renewable energy rather than banking on limited fossil fuel resources. The wind power installations on the Danish North Sea are proof that there are means other than putting nature conservation areas at risk.”
But wind turbines, although common in the Netherlands, cannot guarantee supply during periods of peak demand in the cold Dutch winters. Ironically, in 2001 the former government turned down a proposal to install wind turbines in the Wadden Sea. These don’t cause subsidence, but they are a hazard to migrating birds.
The oil industry says the environmentalists’ fears are—literally – groundless. NAM has closely monitored the sea floor around the Ameland field and measured the resulting subsidence. Since 1986, gas extraction has created a saucer-like depression 22 centimetres deep at the centre, with a diameter of around 11 kilometres and a volume of 9 million cubic metres. NAM’s research suggests that the environment has coped well with the subsidence and that the overall area of tidal flat has not diminished. Hans Jansen, a spokesman for NAM, says: “Extensive studies show we can produce gas safely. The environment is not compromised and our economy benefits.”
NAM is not alone in claiming the effect is minimal. In 2000, Alterra, an environmental research institute belonging to Wageningen University, confirmed the Ameland results. Its independent, 13-year monitoring programme – carried out by a branch of Alterra on the Wadden island of Texel – reported that renewed sand deposition all but compensated for the subsidence. At worst, gas extraction from Ameland would create a shallow depression 28 centimetres deep.
Norbert Dankers of Alterra says: “Environmentalists underestimate the recovery potential of this dynamic environment in response to change. The Wadden Sea has already shown it can cope with the measured subsidence rates. Repositioning of channels and tidal flats is an original feature of the Wadden Sea. They disappear in one place only to reappear in another one.” The ever-shifting routes of ferries, which sail through the channels to reach the islands, would seem to confirm this. What’s more, scientists from the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management measure the tidal zones every 5 years and have not yet registered any loss.
Clean hands
As for pollution, the industry says it has already proved it can operate cleanly. The Wadden Sea’s only offshore platform, Zuidwal 1, is a “minimalist” platform designed to be as environmentally benign as possible. Not only is it visually unobtrusive, it is unmanned and TotalFinaElf sends the gas elsewhere for processing. It also uses non-toxic drilling mud and nothing is dumped into the Wadden Sea. In the words of TotalFinaElf spokesman Theo Rothuis: “Zuidwal is an example where ecological soundness and economic interest go together.”
In any case, the government’s plan does not allow the construction of platforms within the Wadden Sea, so NAM will have to operate from onshore installations. By drilling horizontal wells under the sea from onshore sites, the company says it will be able to extract the gas without disturbing the environment on the surface. It also claims it can hunt for new fields by horizontal drilling from onshore – though as yet there are no plans to allow further exploration in the Wadden Sea.
It may be that the plan comes to nothing. The Dutch Council of State – an independent institution which, among other things, solves disputes between businesses and government – could attempt to block the decision, as could the European Court. But as long as the new government remains in power, it is likely drilling will go ahead. Then the world must hope that the win-win scenario that NAM projects – a richer economy, a more secure state and an unspoilt Wadden Sea – is really possible.