Earthshaking Science by Susan Elizabeth Hough, Princeton University Press, 拢17.95, ISBN 0691050104 Reviewed by Sue Bowler
ANYONE who has ever driven an elderly, ailing car knows the feeling: it鈥檚 going to break down, but who knows when, where and what part of the system will fail? Predicting earthquakes is much the same. Tidy forecasts of what, when, where and how much it will cost are as rare for quakes as for car repairs, and about as reliable. Have earthquake seismologists failed, then?
Susan Elizabeth Hough says not, and Earthshaking Science sets out her case. This book combines an excellent outline of how, why and where earthquakes happen, with a clear-eyed look at the subject鈥檚 inherent uncertainties. This is not a book that proposes simplistic answers. It presents a real picture of a lively research field in all its gritty glory, written with a sharp eye for the absurdities of scientific life.
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The author shows how geophysicists do science, and how ideas sprout, wither or flourish. The focus on uncertainty paradoxically has the effect of highlighting the areas in which seismologists are confident, which makes it easier to deal with the ambiguities.
Much of the book discusses earthquakes in California, America鈥檚 quake hotspot. But Hough is not above a sly reminder of the bias the imbalance between West Coast and East brings to the perceptions of relative risk. The book begins with a quote from a 1906 letter to the San Francisco Chronicle describing a quake鈥檚 calamitous effects on a city. But this happened to be Charleston, South Carolina. There may be fewer quakes in the centre and east of the US than in the west, but they鈥檙e likely to do more damage than the average California tremor.
Hough includes a careful and informative discussion of earthquake risk across the US. Although the conclusions do not make easy reading, given the vagaries of intraplate quakes it is an excellent analysis of what to worry about and where. Overall, this is an intelligent look at a broad field of science that affects many lives. Anyone heading for an earthquake area should buy a copy.