The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century: Late lessons from early warnings edited by Poul Harremo毛s and others, Earthscan, 拢17.95, ISBN 1853838934 Reviewed by Mike Holderness
TLA is a substance suspected of causing climate change, hitherto extremely rare cancers and attention deficit disorder. Following the precautionary principle, the European Union plays it safe and bans its use and importation.
The US then denounces European 鈥渟caremongering鈥� in its appeal to the World Trade Organization, and British TLA manufacturers push their government to litigate in the European Court of Justice. They rely on the alleged harm being 鈥渘ot scientifically proven鈥�.
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Decades later 鈥� after the manufacturers have had a good return on their investment 鈥� firm evidence is produced and the ban is upheld. But lucky citizens with a surviving attention span barely notice over the howl of the wind.
TLA stands for 鈥渢hree-letter acronym鈥�. It鈥檚 entirely fictitous 鈥� crucial, given today鈥檚 libellous climate. Unfortunately, the 14 case studies in The Precautionary Principle, including fishery collapses, asbestos and BSE, are all too real.
Poul Harremo毛s and his fellow editors don鈥檛 claim to tackle the political and profit-defending process outlined above: this is a collection of sketches from scientific and legislative history. The authors set out, in grim detail, how action on the suspected harm was delayed in each case. Their refrain is that the phrase 鈥渢here is no evidence of harm鈥� is not the same as 鈥渢here is evidence of no harm鈥�.
While the editors did their best to achieve 鈥渂alance鈥� by commissioning chapters on false alarms or cases where the precautionary principle had done more harm than good, no such cases were available.
So what should one do when asked to provide a kind of law-court 鈥減roof鈥� that simply isn鈥檛 in the vocabulary of science? List the areas of ignorance, the authors say. Had someone said of halocarbons in the 1950s, 鈥淲e have no evidence of harm to humans, but we have no idea what they may do to the soil, or water, or air,鈥� the story of the ozone hole might have been shorter. And I would add that policy makers concerned with climate change or genetic modifications should read this collection of early warnings wilfully ignored.